Unfortunately I don't think OBL and his evil deputy are anywhere in the vicinity. (Although I'd love to be proven wrong!)
Just as much as the next guy, I'd like to see Bin Laden's scraggley beard parted by a slug from a Barrett sniper rifle, and I agree, that's simply not likely to happen as a result of Operation Mountain Storm.
But that in no way lessens the strategic significance of this operation. With the loss of the Afghan-Pakistan border regions, not only does Al Qaeda lose their longest standing basing, training, and logistical areas, along with more than two decades of infrastructure and political infiltration, the loss of the tribal areas demonstrates that there is literally no teritory on earth that they can defend on a long term basis.
Cracking the Shawal Valley has proven impossible in the past, both for the British Empire, and for the Soviet Union. In fact, there is historical support for the idea that the mere failed attempt led to breaking the backs of both empires.
Although it's quite a bit too early to declare total victory, it is my belief that the writing is now on the wall, and any Al Qaeda stronghold in the Shawal is doomed to fall. Even one week ago, I was not able to make such a claim with any confidence based on concrete reality. Between the dense forests and the rugged high elevation terrain, the loyalty of the independent and ferocious tribesmen, the Shawal is instantly reminiscent of Vietnam, a place where even our own military was not permitted to achieve decisive victory.
When it comes, success in Waziristan will not be measured in terms of high value targets captured or killed, but instead, is the first concrete and real expression of Reagan's lofty promise to the terrorists, "no place to run, no place to hide". Talk is easy, talk is cheap, but this is more than talk. We're in there, digging them out valley by valley, pushing them back any time they choose to stand and fight, into a smaller and smaller corner.
The Paks aren't on a temporary field exercise, they are setting out roots and digging in to stay in the long term. The swamp isn't just being drained, the sentries are taking up permanent residence, changing both the military and political balance in a region long held by some of the best armies in history to be impossible to conquor.
The benefit doesn't stop there, either. Perhaps the main advantage of the safe houses scattered from Karachi to Peshawar is their very proximity to the porous border region, a sort of a get out of jail, home free, passport to another sovereign country, under the control of a different government, whose orders are carried out by a different chain of command, if you will, a secret tunnel by which those who would do us harm can disappear underground, only to emerge out of the backountry into a different civilization, unlikely to be followed, or even have to worry about the chance of being followed. It is no man's land, but it will not be no man's land for much longer. In the process,g its submission sends the unmistakable message that there are no places on earth where such sanctuary will be possible in the long run.
As for individual targets, the first stage is denying them places like the tribal belts where they can go to ground, rest up, refit and plan new offensives. In breaking up such a haven, they forced from the pocket, forced to adopt on the run thinking and procedures, and their vulnerability increases by orders of magnitude during these evictions, as we saw when Ghailani was captured after fleeing this very place.
Who is to say that there aren't any more prizes dug into the remaining valleys and ridgelines? The best and most defensible terrain remains unexplored to date. All that has changed is that there are no longer any significant terrain obstacles between us and the enemy. Except in the engagements already fought, none of our combat superiority has actually been brought to bear in face to face battle, but now it can be, we can use mass, momentum and overwhelming violence with out the fear of being cut off and defeated piecemeal by isolated pockets enemy resistance. Instead of having to bide our time and wait for the enemy's initiative to bring him within arms reach, we now force battle on our terms, when we decide, pitting our unlimited resources against the enemy's dwindling reserves. The momentum has shifted, and the leaders may have fled or are packing up to leave as this is written, but there's no guarantee they have safely escaped the valley yet. As a matter of fact...in one of the recently posted reports....well, you can read a map as well as I can, no need to make certain things obvious just yet.
The fat lady has yet to sing. All that has changed is that now we know she will sing, before the snow closes the high passes this winter.