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To: AdmSmith

In this article and others, Saleer seems to refer to an area, not a village, per "Saleer mountainous region". It could refer to the range west of the Shakai Valley which includes Janimela, Mandata and Dre Narai, or the range west of there, which includes Zer Khizhai and Zilli Khel, or both taken together. If I had to guess, I'd include both, since the recent engagements cover both ridge systems.

Zari Noor, from context over several weeks, is either immediately NW of Wana, or between Wana and the Saleer mountainous region. It is the feeder station for troops coming from Wana heading towards the mountains in all of the recently reported engagements. If I had to guess, I'd say Zari Noor was a suburb of or Fort within the boundary limits of Wana, rather than further out, simply because of the presence of artillery there. In the SE region surrounding the Shawal Valley, I only know of two discreet firebases, one being Tiarza (Tiarza Scouts Fort) the other being Wana. If Zari Noor is indeed a discrete firebase on its own, then the Paks obviously have three firebases in the immediate area. Not a military no-no, but militarily redundant, as you only require one additional firebase to provide indirect fire support if the bad guys attack a firebase directly.

One caveat here. Immediately prior to the Shakai Valley major engagement, there were repeated reports of artillery positions being dug in on a ridge above Azam Warzak, which would place them roughly five kilometers due south of Zilli Khel. This could be part of an encampment called Zari Noor also.

All previous references in this post refer to Zilli Khel near the southern end of the ridge system west of Bagrai.

Obviously, there is more to discuss here, especially regarding how this series of engagements fits into the larger picture as a whole, but there isn't any way to do that without speculating about future intentions, which I'm not comfortable doing at this time.

What is clear and easily inferred from official reports is that the Paks have established an objective of denying the high ground to the enemy which overlooks the Sperkai Nawal Kot-Shkin road, the Sholam-Chinal Algad road, and the Aranglita-Sra Kanda Algad road. Note also that there is almost certainly some kind of track suitable for at least carts, running from Baghrai to Galgassi through the obvious pass, and this is included in the objective stated above.

Regarding the report of 30 additional trucks, you can figure on about a battalion of infantry there. Whether you figure 8 men per truck or 12, the number is too small for a brigade and too large for a company. If the figure of 100,000 Pak troops reported earlier was correct, the Paks would have about 90 battalions already in the theater. A battalion would be about right to reinforce an attack on a single village or to deal with prisoners and mop-up or as a garrison force while consolidatring gains. My money is on the former, since several reports have mentioned a siege situation somewhere in the Saleer mountainous region. The reports I've seen to date do not specify who is sieging whom.


835 posted on 08/22/2004 11:33:22 AM PDT by jeffers
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To: jeffers
speculating about future intentions, which I'm not comfortable doing at this time.

Thanks for your excellent input to this thread. I agree: we should refrain from real time military analysis and forward looking military speculations. I guess that the information extracted from the arrested AQ members the last weeks is stretching the already long working hours to almost impossible limits not only in Pakistan. Things could be said about the 100,000+ troops and the police work in the field, but then we would break the rule above. We just have to wait and read the newspapers.
836 posted on 08/22/2004 12:49:27 PM PDT by AdmSmith
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