I think Bin Laden's still in the tribal areas. I agree that he will bug out when the fighting gets close, but past experience says he will stay and exhort his men to fight until then.
During Tora Bora, he was there early on, and his forces were fighting hard. Then he took off, and shortly thereafter, so did they. In the tribal areas, the enemy is fighting hard, and in some cases, taking the offensive. As long as they feel that they can maintain acceptable casualty ratios against the Pak Army, they will continue to fight. When it appears they will be overrun, they retreat.
Adm Smith, thanks for the update. I'm keeping an eye out on this because if AQ really is massing near Wana, it represents a new dimension.
On a different note, I keep coming across two words in the mapmaking, "Narai" and "Algad". From the locations of villages bearing these names, Narai may mean "ridge" or "pass", and Algad may mean river or stream crossing. Considering the significance of these possible meanings, it could shorten the process quite a bit. Do you have any confirmation or translation information?
We think; we don't know.
>>During Tora Bora, he was there early on
Yeah, like in OCtober. By the time we started bombing he was long gone to Pakistan.
His exhortations were from Pakistan.
But, opinions will differ.
Algad: Check here for some Algads:
http://wayhoo.com/index/a/sgns/country/PK/dsg/SBED/results/1/cty/Pakistan/
It is stated as "dry stream bed"
B ut my guess is "dry watercourse liable to spates in the wet season"
Here is what the NGA (NIMA) GEONames data base reports on that matter.
Searching: All geographic features ending with "Narai" in FATA, Pakistan:
Found: 297 hits, 286 were identified as being passes.
Searching: All geographic features ending with "Algad" in FATA, Pakistan:
Found: 612 hits, 610 were identified as being either streams or intermittent streams (3/4ths intermittent).
--Boot Hill