Replies

There's at least one documented tie between Al Qaida and China. After Clinton's retaliatory strike in Sudan and Afghanistan, China either purchased or was trying to purchase unexploded TLAMs that Al Qaeda had found on the approaches to the target areas.

The following is derived from secondhand sources so take it with a grain of salt. The road crossings at the Chinese border are checkpointed, with a sizable military presence at each. Relationships with Western climbing expeditions are chilly but correct. Paperwork must be exactly in order, there is some searching of gear and trucks, with particular emphasis on what is being brought into China. Outgoing concerns seem to be much lower. This general situation has been reported at numerous points across the border areas in both Pakistan and Nepal. With many of these expeditions routinely used to bribing Nepalese and Pakistani Customs agents, in order to get them to overlook the import of beef, currency, quantity restrictions etc., it is noteworthy that I do not recall any attempt or even consideration of bribing the Chinese Border Guards at the checkpoints.

There is significant patrol activity, even at higher altitudes. Climbers looking to sneak across the border for a quick unlicensed summit are extremely careful not to make contact with patrols or with traveling locals. The assumption is that the locals will pass on sightings of foreigners to the Chinese troops.

The troops themselves seem to fit the description of "remote border garrisons", largely autonomous to local authority, somewhat contemptuous of the majority of border crossers, brought on by contacts largely limited to mountain locals.

While the conditions described do not seem conducive to smuggling, if it does take place the likely channels would be via small village officials on the Chinese side who had established contacts with the border guards, and with regular cross border trafficers. As for the porosity of the border, the climbers can and do make it across and back without interference, but they stick to remote passes, and use extreme caution. Many of these passes are at 19,000 feet or higher and the conditions can be fearsome.

Based on the general overview provided by the different accounts available, it seems that cross border terrorist operations would be more in the nature of temporary safe haven, with permanent presence on the Chinese side less likely. The Guards do not promote familiarity, and maintain living accomodations apart from local populations. Unlikely, but not impossible. If anyone would be likely to find cracks in the border, it would be Bin Laden.

Something else to consider when looking at trafficability in that region, is that a major feeder route into the Wakhan Corridor is the Panjshir Valley, but that the residents there would be significantly hostile to both the terrorists and the Taliban. There is a long period of conflict between the two, beginning during the Russian occupation. The inhabitants of the Panjshir, under Gen. Masood, (The Lion of the Panjshir) were in direct competition with the jihadists over funding from the US and Saudi Arabia, funnelled through the Pak ISI. After the fall of the communist government in Kabul, Masood was appointed secretary of defense in Kabul, weathering many attacks from the jihadist sympathizer Gulbuddin Hekmatyr, before being ousted by the Taliban. Finally, on 9/9/2001, Al Qaeda terrorists assassinated Masood, leaving his Northern Alliance troops behind to fight under the temporary command of Gen. Dostum, who was based at Mazar-i-Sharif.

There are other conduits through the valleys and over the passes, but I would strongly suggest that the main road running through the Panjshir woukd be an unfriendly or even hostile environment for radical proponents of Islam.

"Based on the general overview provided by the different accounts available, it seems that cross border terrorist operations would be more in the nature of temporary safe haven, with permanent presence on the Chinese side less likely. The Guards do not promote familiarity, and maintain living accomodations apart from local populations. Unlikely, but not impossible. If anyone would be likely to find cracks in the border, it would be Bin Laden."

Again, very interesting to read your entire post - with the above segment seeming possibly very true....and very frustrating -

One wonders, if this is where UBL and Al Zawahiri are operating (more like simply trying to live) - it does beg the question - are we really going to be able to get them - ever? - Without a very large scale man-hunt (thousands of troops for an extended time (supplies, etc) in this area.

This story has finally made it to K2Climb.net:

http://www.k2climb.net/story/TerroristsfireonPassingerBusnearK2Jul122004.shtml

Terrorists fire on Passenger Bus near K2

Jul 12, 2004 16: 19 EST 5 killed, 6 injured as terrorists fire on Bus on the Karakoram Highway (KKH) in Dassu, Kohistan coming from Islamabad and going to Skardu on July 4th.

Hundreds of foreign climbers and trekkers have passed this area on the Karakoram Highway in Kohistan, on the road from Islamabad to Skardu. There are extensive celebrations in Skardu for the K2 50 year Golden Jubilee which started last saturday, July 10th.

For the last few days rumors were ripe in the area that during Wana operations and the round-up of terrorists in Karachi some terrorists have shifted to the tribal areas of Indus-Kohistan, where Sufi Muhammad has a strong influence and have taken refuge there.

Such terrorism, especially on travelers, will affect tourism seriously, which ultimately will result in economic losses for the country.

The District Coordination Officer (DCO) said that a case has been registered against unidentified assailants. Investigations are underway but so far no arrest has been made. Security has been tightened on the Karakoram Highway.

Map of Northern Pakistan compiled by ExWeb. Red line is the KKH, NorthWest of map borders Afghanistan, SouthEast is the trekking and climbing mecca of the Karakorum.