Is Peak Oil reality? What do you think?

[SVTCobra03]

If we can develop the technology to economically develop tar sands and shale oil we will have enough oil for 500 years.

[SVTCobra03]

Hybrid cars are selling like crazy? Maybe in Berkeley or Oregon, but not here in flyover country. People buy vehicles that accomodate their lifestyles. Those with large families or want to pull a trailer or boat will continue to buy SUV's. As for me, if your hybrid doesnt have aggressive styling, great handling and can go 0-60 in under 4.5 seconds, then forget it.

[neutrino]

I agree with the peak oil hypothesis.

The market pricing mechanism will allocate energy - but the interim volatility will probably result in a great deal of discomfort for a lot of people.

[RightWhale]

Alqaida and Iranian guerillas are proving that interrupting the flow of oil is not easy. While we could, in theory, cut down on our demand for oil, that would not be the main factor anymore because China and others are increasing their need for oil at a rapid rate. Peak Oil is a good name for the theory, but Peak Easy Oil is a little more descriptive. The easy oil is the first oil produced, and then oil becomes more expensive. While some worry that the US is importing a lot of oil, consider that the US is also one of the most major oil producing countries even though Saudi has the most major oil reserves. We'll never see really cheap oil again, although even where it is now it is still one of the best bargains on earth.

But oil will become so expensive in the next ~10 years that wind and solar, maybe nuclear again, will be competitive options. By then food will much more expensive, even in bulk. Everything will be more expensive. except advice, which is still free unless you need it notarized.

[jimknopf]

thanks for your thoughtful comment.

[Timocrat]

Well I'm just reporting what's happening. Personally my 2500 Ram Cummins Dieseled engined truck is fine for me. It's difficult getting a rifle rack in one of those hybrids.

[Dead Dog]

Hybrids don't do well in flyover country, they need massive traffic jams to be effective.

[Meldrim]

I burn anthracite from PA whenever I get a chance. It is the patriotic alternative to the Saudi Stuff Boston Gas provides...alas it is only slightly less expensive per BTU here in Plymouth County.

[KC_for_Freedom]

But what I mean is if there simply IS no more oil, than the price is not important.

Even though you put the phrase "I mean is" between the What and the If, in essense you are still playing the "What if " game.

You got a good response from Brad, and good advice.

Have another cup of coffee, and a great and profitable day!

The point of this is we will never be out of oil, because we will always find a way to make it if we need it enough, (and we do today). But in the future, mankind will come up with creative alternatives that are cost efficient. (Like fuel cells are not today), (And nuclear power is, but is castigated politically.)

Thats what we will do if no oil ever comes to pass.

[MegaHertz]

"When the demand outstrips supply, and prices begin to increase to prohibitive levels, then and only then will we find a cheap energy source."

How is any alternative going to "cheap" when all of them are subsidized by oil? Just a few and I mean few examples...It takes oil to make a solar panel and oil to transport it. It takes oil to make tires on a tractor. Oil is used on many levels to manufacture and transport EVERYTHING. When oil goes up in price than the "costs" of everything go up.

Give me an example of something man made that oil does not play some role in the manufacturing or transport of. I bet you can't.

Alternatives are not going to be cheap. Which will change the way we live. The transition will be the long painful part.