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To: eastforker

I do believe your "what if" is "what is."


1,731 posted on 06/17/2004 8:00:02 AM PDT by jerseygirl
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To: All

This is from MEMRI-

I snipped most of the article away- it is very long and detailed--but one section here may also tie in with our massive deployment of force:

Inquiry and Analysis Series - No. 181
June 17, 2004 No.181

The Internal Debate in Iran: How to Respond to Western Pressure Regarding Its Nuclear Program
By: Ayelet Savyon*

In response to increasing international pressure on Iran on the matter of its nuclear program, two major approaches are emerging in the Iranian media regarding the question of how to repel the Western threat to Iran's nuclear activities.

The following is an analysis of these two main approaches to this question, as reflected in the Iranian media:


The Two Approaches

The first approach espoused by Iran's conservatives, and particularly by the Revolutionary Guards and circles close to Iranian Leader Ali Khamenei, is militant and aggressive, and openly threatens European and U.S. targets and interests, both in the Middle East and in the West.

The second approach, espoused by Iran's reformist circles, is more moderate, emphasizing diplomatic channels, and opposes threatening the Europeans. However, for all their differences, both camps agree on Iran's need for an advanced nuclear program.


Conservative Strategy: Threat and Intimidation

Currently, Iran's nuclear activity dossier is under examination at the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA), and a decision on it is slated to be made soon. Iran is trying to block the U.S.

To repel the Western threat, Iran's conservatives are recommending intimidating Europe and the U.S. This is the backdrop to the following: (snip)

A growing number of reports about the recruitment and training of thousands of Iranian volunteers by Iran's Revolutionary Guards for suicide attacks against Western, European, and U.S. targets in Iraq, and their dispatch to Iraq. [2] (See Appendix I)

Reports on the resumption of Iran's project for long-range Shihab 4 and Shihab 5 missiles, by order of Iranian Leader Ali Khamenei – with Europe and the U.S. as its strategic targets. [3]



(This Part enhanced the pucker factor)-

Statements by senior Revolutionary Guards officials

about the existence of a plan to eliminate Anglo-Saxon

civilization using missiles and suicide bombers against "29

sensitive targets" in the West, which have already been

identified by Iranian intelligence. [4]


Statements by conservative papers calling on Iran to quit the NPT, and not to ratify the Additional Protocol. [5](snip)

Reformist Strategy: Diplomatic Efforts

The reformist circles, particularly those surrounding Iranian President Muhammad Khatami and the Foreign Ministry, are recommending a moderate strategy to be pursued via diplomatic channels.(snip)

An announcement of the resumption of the long-range Shihab 4 and Shihab 5 missile program, by order of Iranian Leader Ali Khamenei.

According to a military source in the Iranian Ministry of Defense, "in a meeting last week with Revolutionary Guards commanders, Khamenei said that Israel was planning to attack Iran's nuclear installations and the Iranian military soon,

and therefore defense and military preparedness should be boosted as soon as possible.

Khamenei stressed that the increase in petroleum prices allowed Iran to allocate a larger budget to its military projects.

[Iran's] Ministry of Defense received $1 billion to resume its Shihab 4 and Shihab 5 project. It is known that in the past, Iran conducted an experiment with Shihab 3 missiles whose range is 1,200 kilometers [and which can reach Israel], but [President] Khatami halted the project of the Shihab 4, whose range is 2,800 [which covers Western Europe], and the Shihab 5, whose range is 4,900-5,300 km [and which can reach the U.S.], because he thought it was a project incompatible with Iran's strategic interests and defense needs." [11]


Statements by Dr. Hassan Abasi, theoretician of Revolutionary Guards intelligence, head of the Revolutionary Guards' Center for Doctrinaire Affairs of National Security Outside Iran's Borders, and political expert for the Iranian broadcasting authority, who told a secret meeting of Ansar-e Hizbullah activists about Iran's


(more pucker)

"locating and spying on 29 sensitive sites in the West, with the aim of bombing them…

Our intention is that 6,000 U.S. nuclear warheads will explode in [the U.S.].

We have located the [29] weak points and we have transferred the information about them to the guerilla organizations, and we are acting through them."


Abasi added, "We have established a department for Britain as well, and the discussion about bringing about its collapse is on our agenda. We are also operating among the Mexicans, the Argentineans, and all those with a problem with the U.S."


[12] According to another report, Abasi said, "We defend [the line of] violence and war against the enemies of revolutionary Islam.

I take pride in my actions that cause anxiety and fear among the Americans… We have a strategy drawn up for the destruction of Anglo-Saxon civilizationand for the uprooting of the Americans and the English.

Our missiles are now ready to strike at their civilization, and as soon as the instructions arrive from Leader [Ali Khamenei], we will launch our missiles at their cities and installations.

Our motto during the war in Iraq was: Karbala, we are coming, Jerusalem, we are coming.

And because of Khatami's policies and his 'dialogue among civilizations,' we have been compelled to freeze our plan… And now we are [again] about to carry out the program…

The global infidel front is a front against Allah and the Muslims, and we must make use of everything we have at hand to strike at this front, by means of our suicide operations or by means of our missiles." [13]

(major snip)


1,738 posted on 06/17/2004 8:13:07 AM PDT by jerseygirl
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