While I agree with you that the election will be decided by event that are yet to happen, I don't have quite the pessimistic view that you have. For starters, if events take a turn for the worse, Kerry has to actually be capable of capitalizing on them. Secondly, all indicators point to things taking a turn for the better.
Sure I may discount Kerry because I don't like him, but from what I see he's not winning anyone over who isn't staunchly anti-Bush anyways. From what I see, all the Bush haters will hold their noses and vote for Kerry, but he's not actually convincing anyone of anything.
Reagan was able to unseat Carter because he actually had a positive message and a clear vision. Reagan had a reason to be president. John Kerry has never even tried to pretend that he does, and if he did, no one would believe him.
The one question I have regarding Kerry is: does his stiff patrician demeanor and his measured monotone speaking style make him appear as important and authoritive, or self-important and aloof to the average voter?
Compared to Bush's more casual demeanor and shall we say, "inexact" speaking style, will this be a positive, a negative, or a wash for Kerry?
regarding Bush getting credit for the economic recovery, I imagine that as the election approaches, people will begin to take notice. He certainly has done all he can to take credit for it, and get the message out, making it one of his central themes at every speech. It is not Bush's fault if the media ignores the recovery and keeps talking the economy down despite the facts and his speeches. You may notice that a new campaign ad from Bush about the economy has begun airing. This should have some effect. Remember, we're just now at the point in the election cycle when campaigns begin in earnest.
The one thing that I'm really confused by is that you say of the states that could flip for Bush, "perhaps Oregon". It's the only one that you added the extra hurdle of "perhaps".
Of all the states that Gore won last election, Oregon is the MOST likely to go for Bush this time. He barely lost there, and he's been polling at tied or ahead of Kerry there. It could easily go for him without any election altering event.
Agreed.