Iran threatens Israel with matching reply: Nuclear facilities' bombing plan

Hi Pakistan ^ | June 3, 2004 | Pakistan News

[FairOpinion]

TEHRAN: Israel will suffer a "painful" response if it dares to attack any of Iran's nuclear facilities, the Islamic republic's top national security official warned on Wednesday.

"I do not think Israel will make such a stupid move because it knows fully well how we will respond," Hassan Rohani told a news conference. "Our response will be painful to Israel," he said, but dismissed all talks of an Israeli attack as "propaganda".

Last month Israeli Prime Minister Ariel Sharon said Iran was "probably the main existential threat" to his country. Both Israel and the United States suspect Iran is developing nuclear weapons under cover of an effort to generate nuclear energy.

In 1981, Israel attacked an Iraqi nuclear facility, and there has been speculation it may consider doing the same for Iran - which continues to call for the destruction of the Zionist state.

Rowhani's comments came as he answered to new revelations from the UN nuclear watchdog that bolstered suspicions over the Islamic republic's shadowy atomic energy programme.

US N-ALLEGATIONS: Mr Rohani challenged the United States on Wednesday to produce any evidence it has that Tehran is actively trying to build a nuclear bomb. "If the Americans have any claims or information they should hand it over to the (UN nuclear watchdog) agency, but it's clear they have nothing," Mr Rohani told reporters in Tehran.

He said the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) had only minor concerns about Iran and would soon be able to reassure the world Tehran has no atomic arms ambitions.

IAEA chief Mohamed ElBaradei told NATO parliamentarians on Tuesday that he could not rule out that Iran's nuclear programme was linked to a military weapons programme. "The jury is out on whether (Iran's) programme has been dedicated exclusively for peaceful purposes," ElBaradei said.

The IAEA said on Tuesday in a confidential report on Iran, obtained by Reuters, there are two major issues it must resolve. First is the origin of enriched uranium traces found at sites in Iran, which some diplomats on the IAEA board say had raised concerns Iran was secretly enriching uranium for use in weapons.

The second is Iran's centrifuge programme, especially its interest in advanced P2 enrichment centrifuges capable of making bomb-grade uranium. The report said Iran had admitted importing P2 parts and may have had interest in parts for thousands of centrifuges - contrary to what it told the agency before.

The United States accuses Iran of running a secret nuclear weapons programme that is parallel to its declared atomic energy programme. Iran denies this, insisting its ambitions are limited to the peaceful generation of electricity.

"I think the administration oversteps the evidence by saying it knows Iran has a weapons programme," said David Albright, a former UN weapons inspector and president of the Institute for Science and International Security (ISIS) in Washington.

"There's no evidence that's been found that shows they have an active nuclear weapons programme," Albright said. But he said Iran seems to be keeping the weapons "option" open by pursuing uranium enrichment, a process of purifying uranium for use as fuel in nuclear power plants or in weapons.

"I think the US should be rightly criticised for not providing evidence of a weapons programme in Iran," he added. The United States accused Saddam Hussein of reviving Iraq's dismantled atomic weapons programme after UN inspectors were forced out in 1998, but no evidence was found to support this. This was one of the main justifications for the Iraq war.

While the IAEA report shows that Iran has been changing its story regarding its research in potentially weapons-related technology, analysts and diplomats close to the IAEA said it contained no "smoking gun" that Iran is working on an atom bomb.

Mr Rohani said the IAEA had only minor questions related to Iran's nuclear programme. "This report shows that Iran's nuclear case is approaching the end and there are no more important issues," he said.

[FairOpinion]

And if Bush had high support at home, we could go and take out Iran's weapons.

[montomike]

Like any Iranian Jets would make it to Israeli airspace to bomb the extremely hardened Israeli facilities like they would know where they were.

[Pukin Dog]

"I do not think Israel will make such a stupid move because it knows fully well how we will respond,"

I don't think Israel minds if Iranians bleed on them.

[sheik yerbouty]

The mullahs "Space saver tire" headgear must be too tight!

[Centurion2000]

"I do not think Israel will make such a stupid move because it knows fully well how we will respond,"

Iran: We will send in lots of fighters and fighter-bombers to die at the hands of the JOOOOS ... and then call it victory

[yonif]

Iran already has the missile means to deliver a nuclear weapon to Israel. Last year it unveiled its new missile which unsupringly has a range which reaches Israel. Iran is now working on its nukes and time is running out. It is safe to say that Israel is already planning its own measures to deal with this terrorist threat. The world will probably do nothing, and Israel, yet again, will have to act. But it may not bomb Iranian reactors, if it finds that its own missile defense system is deemed able to intercept any such thing coming from Iran, or if the US or another entity sucessfully persuades Israel not to act, but that is unlikely.

[yonif]

With any luck, if Israel bombs those reactors, this will lead to an overthrow of the terrorist regime there by the population. If Israel were to take down the reactors, Iran will have no way to respond really but through its current policies that arm and fund terror groups murdering Israelis.

[Dosa26]

What is the main threat to Israel from Iran? How substantial is it?

I'm not over there, but mathmatics says 5 or 6 crude nukes(snuck in or fired from iranian missiles, doesn't matter israeli intelligence would find out quickly) could cripple israel and trigger the sampson option.

The mullahs of iran are crazy...are they crazy enough to do it? I don't know. Hopefully we won't find out one way or the other.

[Dosa26]

But it may not bomb Iranian reactors, if it finds that its own missile defense system is deemed able to intercept any such thing coming from Iran, or if the US or another entity sucessfully persuades Israel not to act, but that is unlikely.

Unlikely indeed. I wouldn't bet Tel Aviv on it and i doubt Israel will.

[adam_az]

Iran could conceivably fly planes or launch missiles from Lebanon.

Israel has good anti-missile defenses however - including the only theatre anti-missile system - the Arrow anti-missile missile and Green Pine radar. It is also interoperable with the US made Patriot system, which Israel posesses.


The Elta Green Pine early warning and fire control radar for the Arrow system. The radar can detect targets at ranges up to about 500km and is able to track targets at speeds over 3,000m/s.


An Arrow Weapon System battery has four or eight launch trailers, each with six launch tubes and missiles, a Launch Control Centre, a communications centre, a fire control centre and the units of a mobile Green Pine radar system.


The Arrow 2 missile approaches the target at a maximum speed of Mach 9, or 2.5km/s, to a maximum altitude of 50,000km.


Diagram showing stages of missile interception by the Arrow ATBM System. The picture shows a hostile missile trajectory and that of the Black Sparrow air-launched target missile used in firing tests.

ARROW 2 THEATRE BALLISTIC MISSILE DEFENCE SYSTEM, ISRAEL

The Arrow 2 theatre ballistic missile defence system has been developed by the MLM Division of Israel Aircraft Industries and is in operation with the Israeli Defence Forces. The system, carrying the codename Homa or Fence, is to be deployed in three batteries including one battery near Tel Aviv and one to the south of Haifa. The first battery became operational in 2000.

The demonstrator phase of the program began in 1988 when the US Department of Defense Strategic Defense Initiative placed a contract on the Electronics Division of Israel Aircraft Industries to build and test the Chetz-1 (Hebrew name for Arrow 1) Anti Tactical Ballistic Missile (ATBM) system. Following the successful completion of the demonstrator tests, the system entered full-scale development and pre-production.

The weight of Arrow 1 was 2,000kg. A new missile was developed, Arrow 2, with a launch weight of 1,300kg, which was first tested in 1995. Arrow 2 has successfully completed a number of flight tests including, in December 2003, the sixth test of the complete weapon system, which intercepted and destroyed a Rafael Black Sparrow target missile (simulating an incoming ballistic missile), deployed from an IAF F-15I fighter. This test was part of the ongoing Arrow System Improvement Program being conducted jointly by Israel and the US. The test demonstrated the system's improved performance, including higher altitude interception. In 2004, it is planned to test the system against Scud C and D medium-range ballistic missiles at a test range in the US.

In February 2003, IAI signed an agreement with Boeing to establish the production infrastructure to manufacture components of the Arrow missile in the US. Boeing will be responsible for the production of approximately 50% of the missile components in the US. Boeing will produce various missile components and co-ordinate the production of existing Arrow missile components already being manufactured by more than 150 American companies. IAI will be responsible for integration and final assembly of the missile in Israel.

An Arrow Weapon System battery is equipped with typically four or eight launch trailers, each with six launch tubes and ready-to-fire missiles, a truck mounted Hazelnut Tree Launch Control Centre, a truck mounted communications centre, a trailer mounted Citron Tree fire control centre and the units of a mobile Green Pine radar system. ARROW 2 MISSILE LAUNCH PLATOON

The missile launch platoon consists of the Hazelnut Tree truck-mounted Launch Control Centre (LCC) with four or eight missile launch trailers. The entire launch platoon is mobile and able to relocate to a new site. After firing the launchers can be reloaded in an hour.

There are microwave and radio data and voice communications links between the launch centre and the radar command and control centre. The launch system can be located up to 300km from the site selected for the radar command and control centre.

ARROW 2 ATBM MISSILE

The two-stage missile is equipped with solid propellant booster and sustainer rocket motors. The missile uses an initial burn to carry out a vertical hot launch from the container and a secondary burn to sustain the missile's trajectory towards the target at a maximum speed of Mach 9, or 2.5km/s. Thrust vector control is used in the boost and sustainer phases of flight. At the ignition of the second stage sustainer motor, the first stage assembly separates.

The Arrow missile is launched before the threat missile's trajectory and intercept point are accurately known. As more trajectory data becomes available, the optimum intercept point is more precisely defined and the missile is guided towards the optimum intercept point.

The kill vehicle section of the missile, containing the warhead, fusing and the terminal seeker, is equipped with four aerodynamically controlled moving fins to give low altitude interception capability. The warhead is a high explosive directed blast fragmentation warhead developed by Rafael, which is capable of destroying a target within a 50m radius. The dual mode missile seeker has a passive infrared seeker for the acquisition and tracking of tactical ballistic missiles and an active radar seeker used to home on air breathing targets at low altitudes. The infrared seeker is an indium antimonide focal plane array developed by Raytheon (formerly Amber Engineering).

The intercept altitudes are from a minimum of 10km up to a maximum of 50km. The maximum intercept range is approx. 90km.

GREEN PINE EARLY WARNING FIRE CONTROL AND MISSILE GUIDANCE RADAR

The Elta Electronic Industries subsidiary of IAI Electronic Group developed the Green Pine early warning and fire control radar for the Arrow system. The radar carries the designation EL/M-2090 and includes the trailer mounted radar and antenna array, the power generator, a cooling system and a radar control centre.

Green Pine is an electronically scanned, solid state, phased array radar operating at L-band in the range 500MHz to 1,000MHz, and was developed from the Elta Music phased array radar. The radar operates in search, detection, tracking and missile guidance modes simultaneously.

The radar can detect targets at ranges up to about 500km and is able to track targets up to speeds over 3,000m/s. The radar illuminates the target and guides the Arrow missile to within 4m of the target.

India has placed an order for the supply of two Elta Green Pine for use with India's air defence system against ballistic missiles. The first was delivered in 2001.

CITRON TREE FIRE CONTROL CENTRE

Tadiran Electronics Limited is the prime contractor for the Citron Tree battle management / fire control centre. Citron Tree, which is trailer mounted, downloads the radar data along with data from other sources and uses powerful signal processing tools to manage the threat interceptions fully automatically, including against single and multiple threats. The system has man-in-the-loop intervention capability at every stage.

The fire control and battle management centre has computer workstations for the Sky Situation Co-ordinator, Intelligence Officer, Post Mission Analysis Officer, Resource Officer and Senior Engagement Officer as well as the Commander's station. The workstations display a large electronic map showing the area of battle. Predicted and confirmed launch sites are colour coded to show priority sites.

When a missile launch is detected, the launch site, the missile's position and trajectory and the predicted impact point are displayed on the electronic map. The predicted impact point is displayed as an ellipse on the map. The size of the impact ellipse shrinks as the missile's trajectory stabilises and the trajectory data becomes available. The trajectory image is colour matched to the image of its launch site. The optimum intercept point is also displayed. The centre can control up to 14 intercepts simultaneously.

Link 16, Tadil J, communications is being developed to allow interoperability with Patriot fire control units. Assigned targets can be handed over to the Patriot's N/MPQ fire control radar. Tests carried out by the US and Israel have successfully linked the Arrow and US Patriot and also the Arrow and Israeli Defence Force Patriot version.

FAS.ORG also has a nice Arrow page with more pretty pictures.

[adam_az]

Iran doesn't want to play this game.

Speaking of the Samson option, Israel has German built Dolphbin class subs, armed with nuclear cruise missiles.

If Tel Aviv goes, so does every one of Iran's major population centers.

[EGPWS]

If Tel Aviv goes, so does every one of Iran's major population centers.

I wonder if people with such a maniacal hatred for a country even think far enough ahead to consider such a scenario.

[SusanTK]

You are right, I can't imagine the cowardly mullahs taking on the Israelis head-on. They fear and loathe Sharon especially, but there is enormous respect from the average Iranian citizen as to the capabilities of the Jewish state. My fater-in-law lives in Iran and my husband and I visited there a short while ago. There were the ubiquitous signs denouncing the "Zionist Entity" but I found the people to be in awe of the power and capablities of the Israelis. Many had fond memories of a Jewish doctor in my husband's home town that everyone went to because he was the best. Hezbollah toughs threw a Molotov cocktail at his house so he fled the country. They weren't sure if he had gone to Israel or America. My father-in-law likes Sharon because he admires his toughness and courage. Sharon also makes the mullahs pee in their dresses. I believe this Rowhani guy is all bluster and is bluffing with a pair of twos. There is no way the Iranians will take on the vaunted, even mythologically fearsome Israeli war machine. They aren't man enough. They can only terrorize and torture unarmed kids or pay psycho Palestinian terrorists to do their dirty work for them.

[AlaskaErik]

If Tel Aviv goes, so does every one of Iran's major population centers.

I wonder if they could spare a couple of missles...one for Mecca and one for Medina.

[Desecrated]

This is true but many in the Iranian gov believe that they can cripple Israel with a first strike and withstand a counter barrage. This is the scary part. If this country is allowed to develop nukes we are in big trouble.

[F14 Pilot]

Agreed!

[EQAndyBuzz]

Nukes would never be used. It would be cheaper to walk into a crowded Tel Aviv street after the sabbath ends and drop a vial of ebola or other viral compound on the ground.

After the first report of an outbreak, the UN would insist Israel close its borders and not let any flights or shipping leave the country. The wall Israel has built would enable the Palestinians to be isolated from the virus.

As the virus spreads, the Arab world will go to the UN and insist Israel is responsible for creating a killer virus and that God is punishing them for it. European leaders and others would be slow to send in supplies and medical teams with only the US responding quickly.

Within a week, Israel would be in panic mode. The hospitals would be overflowing, the infrastructure unable to sustain the casualties. It would be during this time that Syria, Iran, Lebanon and Egypt launch a massive attack.

How is that for a scenario?

[dennisw]

 

Wed May 26,10:08 PM ET
Toby Keith (news), Willie Nelson (news) and Kenny Chesney (news) (L-R) perform the song 'Stay All Night' at the 39th annual Academy of Country Music Awards at the Mandalay Bay Events Center in Las Vegas, Nevada, May 26, 2004. REUTERS/Ethan Miller

 

 

 

Sun May 30, 1:17 PM ET
Country music star Toby Keith (news) (L) holds the hand of Lon Mullaney, San Jose, California during a visit to Landstuhl Regional Medical Facility, Germany, May 30, 2004. Mullaney, a U.S. soldier, was wounded in a rocket propelled grenade attack in Baghdad. Keith, who swept top honors in last week's Academy of Country Music Awards, is on a United Service Organizations (USO) tour of Europe and South Asia to entertain US troops over the Memorial Day period. (EDITORIAL USE ONLY, NO RESALES) REUTERS/HO/USO/Mike Theiler

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Sun May 30, 3:40 PM ET
Country music singer Toby Keith (news), left, chats with U. S Army Stf. Sgt. Gary Jackson of Colchester, Vt., who was wounded in a mortar attack in Baghdad, during a visit to Landstuhl Regional Medical Facility, Germany, Sunday May 30, 2004. Keith, who swept top honors in last week's Academy of Country Music Awards, is on a United Service Organizations (USO) tour of Europe and South Asia to entertain US troops over the Memorial Day period. (AP Photo/USO, Mike Theiler)

 

 

 

Wed Jun 2,11:17 AM ET
Country music star Toby Keith (news), left, shakes hands and speaks with Sgt. Roberto Reyes, right, as his wife Jessica Reyes, second from left, looks on during Keith's tour of the Landstuhl Regional Medical Center in Landstuhl, western Germany, in this U.S. Army photo taken Sunday, May 30, 2004 and made available June 2, 2004. (AP Photo/LRMC/U.S. Army, Sgt. Joe M. Battle)

 

 

[Dave Elias]

"How is that for a scenario?"

A load of bollocks