Novak is dead wrong on the Taliban. The Taliban are shattered, able to do little but ambush the occasional aid convoy. If anyone takes over in the event of a collapse of the Karzai government, it will be a Pashtun coalaition, which is NOT synomous with the religious zealotry of the Taliban (the Afghans, like the Turks, have historically eschewed extremist Islam). However, the Karzai government has been able to make a lot of progress, at least by the standards of Afghanistan (if not Bob Novak).
He is also wrong about the capabilities of US forces there. In fact, the US has recently launched a version of the Vietnam-era Combanied Action Platoon concept in eastern Afghanistan. It has been quite successful (Westy hated the USMC's CAP program in Vietnam, which is high praise for the Marines). Likewise, we are getting some real help from the Europeans there. Everyone is using it as an opportunity to give their special forces some real combat experience. While many of the European armies suck, their special ops guys typically do not.
It is true that the drug trade still flourishes, but that is a price we have to pay, at least in the short-term. Sadly, we are also getting little help from the Pakistanis on nabbing Osama & Co., but that is just a matter of time.
I used to like Novak, but he's gone to sh*t in the last five years.
People seem to think he's a Republican cheerleader (in the sense that Begala and Carville are Democratic cheerleaders), he's not. He's a conservative, with practically unmatched D.C. contacts and a penchant for telling it like it is, even if it ruffles GOP feathers.
Novak is pretty well connected and I believe him when he says he's interviewed troops and he's just reporting what they told him.
But you also sound well-informed and what you say is in line with what others posters with first hand experience report.
You may not like Novak, he may be old, he may hate Bush, but there's no evidence he's senile, incompetent, or a liar.