"No matter what, Specter will be gone in 6 years anyway if not earlier. Hoeffel may be there for 20+."
Oh ye of little faith. Although it is likely true that Specter would be gone in 6 years, the damage he will be capable of causing in that term could literally last generations. Hoeffel, on the other hand will not posess, nor be granted any amount of power to inflict long-term damage during his freshman term. He can be gone in 6 years as well, could he not? Is it so unlikely that we will be unable to place a candidate in 2010 that will re-gain the seat for concervatives?
Think of it as a baseball organization:
Generally, every baseball organization has a major-league team and a single A, double A and triple A minor league team training it's younger, less experienced players to possibly make it to "the show".
Specter, if elected, is in "the show" and will be pitching. He will have control, on may occasions during his 6-year term, to either fast-pitch and strike out a player, or oh-so-casually pitch just outside the strike zone and walk players.
Hoeffel, however, being a freshman senator, would be on the single A team learning the ropes and the rules. Yes, he will have the opportunity to play, but not to throw out any pitches on the major league team, where those decisions are made. No single A player is permitted, according to the rules of the game, to go straight from single A to the majors...they must do their time and before being eligible to play with the "big boys". Unless he proves to be outstandingly talented, it simply cannot happen. Is Hoeffel talented to the level that would give him any amount of damaging power in his first term???
1. Incumbents have strong retaining power.
2. Hoeffel has shown he's won tough elections before. Montgomery County is not easy for anyone to win and leans only slightly democrat.
3. With Specter gone in 6, an open seat would be easier for Toomey or someone else to win than against an incumbent.
And even a single A pitcher sometimes gets called up late in the season to get a shot at the big leagues. If he's called up to be the deciding vote on an issue, it won't look good.
If the dem was a Bob Casey dem, it would be one thing. Instead, it's a John Kerry dem.