Kerry expanding ads to GOP-leaning Virginia, part of $17 million June buy

Virginia TV spots for Kerry a new spin
Republicans say efforts to classify state a battleground could backfire

BY TYLER WHITLEY

TIMES-DISPATCH STAFF WRITER

Saturday, May 29, 2004

Democratic presidential candidate John Kerry, contending he has a chance to capture a state that has not gone Democratic in 40 years, will begin television advertising in Richmond, Norfolk and Roanoke next Wednesday.
Tad Devine, national media strategist for the Kerry campaign, said "John Kerry is the kind of candidate who can win in Virginia." He cited the Massachusetts senator's military background plus voter discontent with President Bush. Kerry is a decorated Navy veteran who served in Vietnam.
Devine and Mary Beth Cahill, Kerry's campaign manager, spoke with reporters by conference call from Washington. They did not give details on the extent of the ad buy but said it would last almost a month and be biographical.
Democratic sources said the campaign plans to spend about $750,000 in Virginia on the "first wave" of advertising.

Kerry also plans to advertise on cable TV in the more expensive Northern Virginia market.
Ken Hutcheson, a director of the re-election campaign for Bush in Virginia, said Bush has no plans to advertise in the state, an indication that he still remains confident Bush can carry a state he won by 8 percentage points in 2000.
"We are concentrating on a strong grassroots get-out-the-vote effort that we are confident will enable us to win in Virginia," he said. Hutcheson surmised that Kerry was using TV because his campaign had done little grassroots organizing in the state.
Hutcheson said the Kerry gambit would backfire by galvanizing the Republican base to get involved in the Bush-Cheney campaign.
Kerry will come to Virginia on July 16 for a fund-raiser hosted by Gov. Mark R. Warner, who helped deliver the state for Kerry in the February Democratic presidential primary, a spokesperson for Warner said. The event will be held in Northern Virginia, where Kerry is expected to be strongest.
The Virginia buy will be part of a $17.6 million ad campaign by Kerry in 19 states, Devine said. The Virginia buy will be "proportionate," he said.
Early advertising by both Bush and Kerry has been in so-called "battleground" states, where the margin was close enough four years ago to give both candidates hope they could win.
Virginia is not considered among those states. Bush and Democratic presidential candidate Al Gore virtually ignored Virginia in 2000.
"We think it is important to expand the battlegrounds," Devine said. "We think we have states with 366 electoral votes in play. When we add Virginia, we get that up to 379. It is in our interest to get that number as high as possible."
Whoever wins a plurality in Virginia wins all the state's 13 electoral votes. Out of 538 electoral votes, 270 are needed to win the presidency.
Devine declined to say whether the Kerry campaign had done any polling in Virginia. He said the campaign was heartened by "demographic trends," including a strong voter registration effort by U.S. Rep. Robert C. Scott, D-3rd, of Newport News, in the Hampton Roads area and Kerry's military background in a state with a solid military tradition.
Kerry's showing in the presidential primary - he defeated his "Southern" challenger, Sen. John Edwards of North Carolina, by a two-to-one margin - also encouraged the Kerry camp, Devine said.
Larry J. Sabato, professor of government at the University of Virginia, said he was "mystified" by the Kerry campaign's interest in Virginia. He speculated that Kerry was trying to get the attention of the Washington press corps with a "head fake" designed to show Kerry has a broader playing field than Bush.
Sabato also speculated that Kerry wants to entice Bush then to put money into advertising in Virginia, when the money could be more useful elsewhere.
Although Bush's margin of victory in Virginia in 2000 was lower than in almost all the other Southern states, that was caused by special circumstances, Sabato said, including a tough Republican primary between Bush and Sen. John McCain of Arizona, which disaffected some potential GOP voters, he said.
RTD

Kerry bets TV ads he can win Va.-- Dream on, analysts and GOP say

By BOB LEWIS

Associated Press Writer

Friday, May 28, 2004

RICHMOND, Va. - John Kerry believes he can win Virginia this fall _ something no Democrat has done for 40 years _ and he is betting a statewide advertising blitz that he's right.
"We don't intend for him (Bush) to win it in 2004. I believe Virginians, like other people in the country, want fiscal responsibility, they want a budget that is ultimately balanced," Kerry told The Associated Press during a Friday campaign stop in Wisconsin.
Kerry strategists said they are targeting the Richmond, Roanoke and Norfolk television markets and cable systems in Virginia's Washington, D.C. suburbs for $750,000 in biographical ads through June. They said President Bush's popularity and job approval polls are so low that even reliably Republican Virginia is in play this year.
"We think we can take on the president there," Kerry political adviser Tad Devine said in a telephone news conference with Virginia political reporters.
Political analysts and Republican leaders said it's folly to believe a Massachusetts senator with a liberal voting record can become the first Democrat since Lyndon Johnson in 1964 to claim Virginia.
Kerry's advisers believe they can now extend the electoral battleground into Virginia and other states the Democrats scarcely contested in the past. In 2000, Al Gore never waged a campaign here.
While Democrat Mark R. Warner now controls the governor's office, the GOP holds comfortable margins in both houses of the General Assembly. Republicans also occupy eight of the state's 11 U.S. House seats and both U.S. Senate seats.
Warner endorsed Kerry two days before Kerry's easy Virginia primary victory over North Carolina Sen. John Edwards in February, and Warner has been mentioned as a longshot running mate prospect for Kerry.
Kerry's advisers believe the centrist Warner's success in Virginia makes the state more receptive to a Democrat this fall. They also believe Kerry's past as a Navy combat veteran will make him appealing in Hampton Roads, home to the Norfolk Naval Station.
"It's really a longshot, no doubt about it," said Mark Rozell, a political science professor at Catholic University in Washington, D.C. "In the modern era, Virginia is the most Republican presidential-voting state in the country. It was the only Southern state not to go for native son candidate Jimmy Carter in 1976, and it barely went for LBJ in '64."
"A liberal-voting senator from a state in the Northeast that gets easily maligned in this part of the country is not well positioned to break this trend," Rozell said.
University of Virginia political science professor Larry J. Sabato said Kerry is trying to bait Bush, who has a substantial advantage in campaign cash, into spending money in a secure Republican state within easy view of the Washington media.
"I think it's a head fake," Sabato said. "They're trying to drive home to the Beltway press the fact that Kerry has a broader playing field than Bush, which is true as of today."
Bush won't respond with ads of its own because Virginia is so solidly Republican, said a senior Bush adviser speaking on the condition of anonymity.
Sen. George Allen, R-Va. and a popular former governor, scoffed at Kerry's tactic.
"The bottom line is that the vast majority of Virginians agree with President Bush's initiatives, his principles and his values much more than someone with the record of Sen. Kerry," Allen said in a statement.
RTD

Source with Online Poll Here: What chance would you give John Kerry to win Virginia in November?
Kerry plans ad barrage in hopes of winning Va.
By WARREN FISKE , The Virginian-Pilot
© May 29, 2004
Last updated: 12:14 AM

John F. Kerry

More presidential race news

Democrat John F. Kerry plans to start a television advertising blitz in Hampton Roads and other major metropolitan areas in Virginia, launching what advisers say will be a serious effort to carry the reliably Republican state in this year’s presidential election.
Kerry also plans to hold a major fund-raiser in Northern Virginia on July 16 that will be hosted by Gov. Mark R. Warner, a Democrat.
“We think there is a superb opportunity not only for us to compete in Virginia, but to win in Virginia,” said Steve Elmendorf, Kerry’s campaign manager, during a telephone news conference.
Kerry is not likely to run into President Bush when he comes. Bush’s political organizers are so confident that Virginia will vote Republican this fall for the 10th straight presidential election that they have no plans to advertise or campaign in the state.
“When you have no grassroots support, you rely on television advertising,” said Ken Hutcheson, a GOP strategist who is helping to organize Bush’s statewide campaign.
“Given the strength of the president’s grass-roots organization in Virginia, it will probably be unnecessary to advertise,” Hutcheson said. “I don’t expect Virginia will be in play. I believe President Bush will win Virginia handily.”
The last time Virginia backed a Democratic presidential nominee was in 1964, when it helped Lyndon Johnson to a landslide national victory over Republican Barry Goldwater.
Elmendorf said recent trends suggest that Virginia could be changing. He said that population growth in Northern Virginia has made the state more politically moderate and helped Warner win office.
He also said Kerry’s background as a naval officer in Vietnam may be attractive to the community of military personnel and veterans in Hampton Roads and Northern Virginia. Bush served in the National Guard during the Vietnam War but never went overseas.
In June, the Kerry campaign plans to unleash a month long, $17 million television ad campaign targeting 20 states, including Virginia. Elmendorf said a “proportionate share” of the money would be directed to Virginia.
The biographical ads will run on major networks in Hampton Roads, Richmond and Roanoke. Elmendorf said the ads will have a more limited run on cable channels in the expensive Northern Virginia media market.
The ads come at a time when Bush may be particularly vulnerable. Polls show he is in a dead heat with Kerry and that approval of his job performance is at the lowest level since he took office.

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