There are lots of replies to your question already, but let me see if I can add yet another one. I just read something interesting that's related to the Libya / Iraq connection. I'm wondering if the Pres. is going to create some breaking news tonight. Also, I just watched Brit Hume talking about the speech on Fox News and it piqued my interest. I think Brit said Bush is planning on giving a series of speeches, but I may have been mistaken.
I'm thinking that Bush is going to address something newsworthy tonight. Stranger things have happened.
Posted below is what I found earlier. How reliable is Yossef Bodansky? He and Jayna Davis had some type of contact regarding the OKC bombing investigation, but I don't remember much else about him off-hand. It's a long read, but it's worth it if someone is really interested in this thread.
Not for commercial use. Solely to be used for the educational purposes of research and open discussion.
Defense & Foreign Affairs Daily
April 14, 2004Appendix: The 1998 Report to the US Congress
The Iraqi WMD Challenge: Myths and Reality
The following report, dated February 10, 1998, was written by Yossef Bodansky in his capacity as Director of the US House of Representatives Task Force on Terrorism & Unconventional Warfare. The report has subsequently appeared in the public domain.Nobody likes the idea of Saddam Hussein having weapons of mass destruction (WMD) and missiles capable of delivering their lethal warheads. The ramifications of their potential use in anger -- the numbers of fatalities and injured they might inflict -- are horrendous. However, as the US is getting ready to bomb in Iraq in order to address the challenge of that country's remaining WMD arsenal, one should examine dispassionately what might be conceivably accomplished, and what would be the ramifications of the massive bombing campaign the Clinton Administration is advocating.
Despite Baghdad's protestations, Iraq does have a small but very lethal operational arsenal of WMD and platforms capable of delivering them throughout the Middle East and even beyond. Although Iraq has been subjected to an unprecedented regimen of UN inspection and destruction of strategic military programs since the end of the Gulf War in the Spring of 1991, the international community has proven incapable of learning the entire scope of the Iraqi programs for fielding weapons of mass destruction, let alone eliminate these programs as mandated by the Security Council.
Significantly, the first major independent study of the possible magnitude of the Iraqi undeclared and concealed WMD arsenal was not conducted until the Summer of 1994. For this study, the BND (German Intelligence) relied on KNOWN Iraqi post-Gulf War illegal acquisitions of technology, sub-systems, and strategic materials in Western Europe (mainly Germany, Austria and Switzerland) to assess what could be done with these acquisitions. Even without taking into consideration such diverse inputs as Iraqi acquisitions from countries of the former Soviet Union, the PRC and Iran, as well as rumored but unproven acquisitions in Europe, the results of the BND study were startling for they pointed to several specific programs that not only had the UN inspectors been unaware of in mid 1994, but they have so far proven unable to discover and stop. For example, the Iraqi purchase of a special kind of igniter, with a short shelf-life, for SCUD-type warheads, strongly suggested that the Iraqis used these igniters for operational SCUD-type missiles, as they are capable of increasing the range. The BND thus concluded that it was "difficult to assess" the magnitude of the current Iraqi weapons program. There was no doubt that not only "some of the material equipment" was excluded from discovery and destruction by the UN, but certain projects were being revived and run clandestinely.
A new approach to studying the Iraqi WMD programs was adopted in the aftermath of the "defection" of Lt.-Gen. Hussein Kamal in the Summer of 1995. Originated as an audacious ploy to destroy the anti-Saddam movement from within, the "defection" went sour when Baghdad panicked over reports of contacts between Kamal and the CIA in Amman. Consequently, Baghdad was compelled to surrender to the UN large quantities of material Kamal might have divulged while in Amman. Consequently, Kamal and his brother were lured back to Baghdad where they were promptly assassinated. Meanwhile, the entire perception of the extent of the Iraqi WMD program had to be reevaluated.
Most important was the realization that there is an on going Iraqi program the UN inspections team is highly unlikely to discover and stop. In January 1996, the assessment of the Israeli Military Intelligence was that within the next four years, Iraq would have ten SCUD launchers and some 150 SCUD-type missiles. Some of these missiles are to be equipped with warheads containing WMD. A major aspect of the Iraqi program as of the mid-1990s was the organization of a highly mobile transportation system for the operational elements. Thus, by late 1997, the Iraqis were capable of transferring a few thousand liters of biological materials to new concealed sites within two or three weeks without supervision. As far as Baghdad was concerned, once the materials were hidden, supervision may be permitted to resume as usual. Another indication of an anticipated expansion of Iraq's ballistic missile activities came in late 1997/early 1998 with the appointment of two senior officers -- Abd-al-Rizzaq Shihab of the Army and Muzahm Tassab al-Hassan of the Air Force -- as deputy heads of the Military Industries authority. Both generals held senior command positions of Iraqi missile forces during the Gulf War and are considered Iraq's leading experts in ballistic missile operations. Moreover, during 1997, Iraqi military units conducted several simulated deployments and launching of ballistic missiles of the type and range Iraq is not permitted to have.
Meanwhile, despite the ongoing presence of UN inspectors and the threat of resumed bombing, the Iraqi strategic arsenal continued to expand as the current British Government's threat assessment testifies. In early 1998, Iraq is known to possess 48 SCUD-type missiles and six launchers. (Gen. Wafiq Samarraj, the former chief of Iraqi Military Intelligence, knew of at least 45 SCUD-type missiles with range of over 600 km and several others being repaired at the time of his defection in 1994.) A large portion of the 45 BW warheads/bomb containers Iraq acknowledged constructing in the late 1980s are believed to have survived the Gulf War and still elude the UN inspectors. The British Government estimates that the Iraqis still have 30 warheads capable of carrying chemical and or biological weapons' material. For these warheads and other weapons, Iraq has at least 8,400 liters of Anthrax, as well as 600 tons of chemicals that are sufficient for the production of 200 tons of VX nerve gas -- where a single droplet can kill. (Samarraj reported that in 1994 Iraq concealed 200 containers with biological weapons, more than half of which are still considered in operational condition.)
And while public attention is focused on ballistic missiles, Iraq has even more effective and lethal platforms of the delivery of its weapons of mass destruction. In late December 1996, German intelligence confirmed that Iraqi weapons technicians developed a drone described as "the little guy's cruise missile." This unmanned aircraft is made of plastics and plywood -- simple and cheap to produce without any tell-tale equipment that can attract the UN inspectors. The drone has a range of about 700 kilometers and is equipped with a very accurate GPS navigation system illegally purchased in the West. Each drone can carry 30 to 40 kilograms of biological or chemical warfare agents to the intended target. It is almost impossible to detect this drone by radar because of its size, slow speed and lack of metal parts.
The BND's experts are most alarmed by the Iraqi fielding of a version of this drone that can be also launched from ships. Consequently, one cannot rule out the possibility of an Iraqi-controlled commercial ship suddenly launching these drones outside the coasts of Europe -- from where these missiles can reach and threaten London, Paris or Berlin -- as well as the Atlantic coast of the US.
Another type of chemical weapons known to be in the Iraqi arsenal is "Agent 15" nerve agent. According to British Government sources, Agent 15 is a non-lethal psychochemical nerve gas designed to stupefy enemy forces. It is a derivative of BZ. The agent can be disseminated in various forms -- from artillery and rocket warheads to pouring into water supplies. Depending on the concentration, Agent 15 can cause weakness, dizziness, disorientation, hallucinations and loss of co-ordination. At the level of concentration likely to affect unprotected troops on a battlefield, Agent 15 is expected to disorientate and disable soldiers for a relatively short time (measured in hours). Iraq is known to have experimented with BZ and various derivatives since at least 1985. The British learned that Iraq had built up large stocks of an operational version -- Agent 15 -- only in late 1997.
Thus, Iraq still has a small, diverse, but very deadly operational arsenal of WMD. If used operationally, the Iraqi weapons of mass destruction can cause heavy casualties among both civilian population and military forces not just in the Middle East, but even in the US. The key warhead and bomb components are very small and can be easily moved from one place of concealment to another. Furthermore, if the bulky protective measures of these components are removed, at a risk to the Iraqi troops and nearby population, the movement and concealment of these key warhead and bomb components becomes even more easy. Moreover, it is then virtually impossible to distinguish from afar between these warheads and comparable high-explosive systems -- say, artillery shells.
Assuming that the US located these clandestine WMD, it is still far from certain the US will be able to bomb and destroy all the Iraqi operational weapons. And this has nothing to do with the accuracy of aircraft or the penetrability of smart munitions. The problem lies in the ruthlessness of Saddam's regime and his desperate clinging to power. For example, what if the bulk of the chemical warhead components are stored in, say, the Baghdad Presidential Palace -- two miles southeast of the edge of the Baghdad West Airport. The eruption of any such warhead, let alone a larger storage container, as a result of bomb damage will devastate the heart of Baghdad -- killing countless innocent people. Is this a legitimate outcome of a US bombing campaign? The argument that Saddam is to be blamed for such a tragedy just because he had placed these weapons at the heart of Baghdad carries water only up to a certain point. Besides, Washington should dread the reverberations of such a justifiable act throughout the Muslim World. And what about an Iraqi "retaliation" against a US city using terrorists or a ship-borne drone?
Significantly, however, even if the US and its allies will have managed to destroy the bulk of Saddam WMD operational arsenal, this will provide only a short term solution. No bombing campaign against Iraq, and even an occupation of that country for that matter, is capable of destroying the hard core of Saddam Hussein's primary WMD development and production programs. The reason is that under current conditions these programs are run outside of Iraq -- mainly in Sudan and Libya, as well as Algeria (storage of some hot nuclear stuff). Thus, once the bombing campaign is over, the Iraqis can be expected to smuggle new weapons from Iraq's development sites and production lines - sites that remain untouched by allied bombing as well as unchecked by UN inspection teams. And, for as long as Saddam Hussein remains in power, this charade called disarming Saddam will continue.
One should not be surprised by this sad state of affairs.
The transfer of Iraqi WMD overseas started even before the outbreak of the Gulf War. Back in late 1990, when Baghdad realized Iraq would be subjected to intense bombing, key sensitive elements were smuggled out. Then, in the Spring of 1991, once the extent of the post-War inspection regime became clarified, especially given the type and amount of data provided to the West by numerous defectors, a second round of hasty smuggling took place. Essentially, the core of the next-generation projects of the Iraqi WMD programs was moved to safe-havens. A lot of know-how and key subsystems were shipped out with the idea of building alternate production facilities in the host countries.
Most important are the programs transferred to Libya and Sudan -- two of Iraq's closest allies during the Gulf War that have strong aspirations for WMD of their own. Libya, long struggling to overcome embargoes and the cancellation of arrangements for the supply of technology and systems from Western Europe, has been looking for the Iraqi embargo-busting knowledge and for Iraqi proven solutions for Libyan problems. Sudan needs WMD in order to hit the Black rebels in the south and deter Western intervention against the Islamist terrorism empire.
Hence, Iraq found eager and willing partners for its efforts to circumvent the world's campaign against its WMD.
While the initial movements of WMD stuff were emergency measures or by-products of other considerations, Baghdad reexamined its posture by late 1993. By then, Saddam Hussein had already realized that the UN inspections were not going away, and that the US remained determined to continue the policy of containment and sanctions. Moreover, the US retaliation for the June 1993 narrowly averted attempt on the life of former President Bush by Iraqi intelligence convinced Baghdad that there would be no reconciliation with the US in the foreseeable future. Hence, Baghdad adopted a long term strategy to endure the global pressure.
In March 1994, Babil (a newspaper run by Saddam Hussein's eldest son Uday) declared that it would be "desirable for the leaders of Iraq, Libya and Sudan to hold a summit meeting ... and adopt a common stance" to meet the challenges facing the Arab World.
Meanwhile, Iraq was reviving the international support system for its WMD development and production programs. By late 1994, Iraq's secret purchasing system was completely restored. It was operating energetically not only to just restore previous capabilities but to support new projects -- mostly outside Iraq.
Anticipating that the sanctions would be lifted from Iraq, many European firms were rushing to grab a good share of what used to be a very lucrative market. Presently, the Iraqi-run system is made up of an endless and redundant web of Western firms and technology plants, liaison people, banks and financial institutes, secret merchants and middlemen -- so that it is virtually impossible to discover all components, let alone bring down the system. The procurement system of the Iraqi intelligence has been resurrected, it functions, and it feels good. The present system has not only arose on the ruins of the previous one, but it has learned and overcome all the errors of the system of the 1980s. Significantly, virtually all the firms and plants that had worked for Iraq before the Gulf War have already found their way into the fold of the new system. This time however, many support and sustain programs in Libya and Sudan, as well as in third countries from where the Iraqis ship the goods on their own. Thus, when Lt.-Gen. Hussein Kamal "defected" in the Summer of 1995, he was bringing data of what was left behind in Iraq -- not on the wave of the future already being constructed in Sudan and Libya.
(snip long section about Sudan)Libya
Although ultimately decisive, the Iraqi involvement in the Libyan WMD program has been complex and at times contradictory. Back during the 1980s, the Libyans ran a massive development and production program of their own. For a while, the Libyans closely cooperated with both the Iranians and the Syrians -- both enemies of Iraq. At the same time, however, Libya relied on the same West European suppliers as Iraq did. Moreover, key middlemen, such as Ihsan Barbouti, served both the Iraqi and the Libyan WMD programs. During the mid-1980s, the Libyans were out-spending the Iraqis, and recruiters of Libyan intelligence were offering huge payments in effort to entice key Egyptian, Iraqi and European scientists working in Iraq to transfer to Libya. Baghdad was apprehensive about the Libyan practices.
By the time the Gulf Crisis erupted in 1990, several Iraqi researchers were already working in Libya as individuals, as were several foreign scientists who had worked in Iraq beforehand. Most were working on Chemical weapons projects, primarily in Rabta. At first Saddam reluctant to share with Qadhafi some of the unique achievements of the Iraqis. However, with pressure from UN inspections mounting, and with intelligence leaking from defectors, Iraq had no alternative but to transfer more and more sensitive projects to Libya as the sole venue for their continuation. Although Sudan was glad to receive anything Iraq had to offer, it had such an abysmal scientific-technological infrastructure that it could not sustain the more sophisticated Iraqi programs. Thus, with not too many takers of the Iraqi systems, Libya would have to do. Meanwhile, Qadhafi was most interested in receiving extensive help from Iraqi scientists for his own covert, biological, weapons program and conditioned his support for Saddam on cooperation in this field. Thus, since the early 1990s, Iraqi scientists have been working in Libya in order to continue the key Iraqi research and production programs into advanced and next generation CW and BW.
At first, Baghdad considered the cooperation with Tripoli a temporary necessity. For a while, in the early 1990s, Iraq did not transfer complete projects to Libya. Consequently, several scientists and engineers from the Iraqi military industries were commuting between Iraq and Libya via Amman. They were using new passports with false names and occupations. However, as the contacts were expanding and the Libyans were being exposed to a wider variety of Iraqi programs, Tripoli decided to formalize and expand the cooperation. A special committee of the Libyan defense establishment arrived in Baghdad and negotiated a comprehensive agreement on expanded cooperation in conventional, chemical and biological weaponry. In accordance with these agreements, the Libyans signed contracts with several Iraqi military industry experts. These contracts were drawn as if they were academic invitations for Iraqi professors to lecture in Libyan universities and institutions. At the same time, however, the key Iraqi program equipment, systems and elements remained concealed inside Iraq in anticipation for the end of the UN inspections so that WMD development and production can be resumed.
Meanwhile, Baghdad at first drew the line concerning the Iraqi nuclear program. Lingering doubts concerning Libya's long-term strategic cooperation with Syria and Iran prevailed, and Iraq would take no chances. In 1991-92, Iraqi intelligence feared a Libyan use of financial enticements as an inducement for defections of Iraqi nuclear scientists to the point of undertaking extreme measures to prevent such a trend.
For example, in July 1992, Iraqi agents shot and killed in Amman, Jordan, Muayad Hassan Naji Janabi -- an Iraqi nuclear scientist. Janabi worked for the Iraqi Atomic Energy Commission until 1986, when he was transferred to the Ministry of Military Industries. In 1992, Janabi was on vacation in Jordan. However, he was shot when on his way to pick up Tunisian visas for transit to Libya. He had been offered a "teaching position" at "an atomic institute" in Libya. Baghdad must have been worried because Janabi was supposed to return to Iraq a week earlier and rumors surfaced he had attempted to get to the UK and the US, and failed to get academic visas. By then, Saddam Hussein had banned key personnel in the military-industrial system from leaving Iraq without permission, and fearing that Janabi would not reveal Iraqi nuclear weapons program secrets, he was shot by two Iraqi agents. The two Iraqis were arrested for the assassination but quickly released and sent to Baghdad.
However, by the mid-1990s, Baghdad could no longer be selective in its cooperation with Libya. The BND's 1994 studies of the Iraqi procurement system in Europe was unsettling for it threatened Iraq's ability to revive key WMD programs just as the Iraqi system was being restored to its pre-Gulf War magnitude. Moreover, the UN inspection regime was beginning to grasp the complexity of the Iraqi challenge. Indeed, even before the Summer 1995 "defection" of Lt.-Gen. Hussein Kamal, the UN was increasing its efforts to locate hidden stuff. As discussed above, Kamal's "defection" was prompted by Baghdad's apprehension that the UN was capitalizing on data provided by genuine defectors in order to zero in on Iraq's hidden WMD facilities. For example, Iraq's biological facilities were first subjected to a meaningful inspection in April 1995, on the eve of the "defection." Even though by then, Baghdad had already hidden its biological weapons cache and destroyed all evidence of its existence, the mere UN visit to the abandoned sites was too close for comfort.
Meanwhile, with the Iraqi-Libyan cooperation in chemical weapons development and production going well, Saddam authorized already in the Summer/Fall of 1994 the move of other weapons programs to Libya. Arrangements for closer cooperation were quickly made.
In January 1995, Iraq and Libya signed a major agreement whereby Iraqi specialists will work at a secret Libyan establishment on the development of a long-range ballistic missiles with range of about 1,000 km. A senior Iraqi Trade Ministry official, Hajem Attiya Salma arrived in Tripoli for final discussions with AbdAllah Hijazi, the head of Libya's Scientific Research authorities. In the agreement reached, Qadhafi agreed to pay the salaries of the Iraqi experts -- some $1,200 a month -- as well as finance the acquisition of Western technology. Moreover, the Iraqis were promised access to the Chinese, Iranian, and North Korean missile technology Libya had already acquired. Baghdad promised to share all the experience acquired in the Gulf War. Iraq did not have much alternative. Incapable of working, the Iraqi design teams built around experts trained at the best European and Russian establishments were falling apart. Now Qadhafi was offering to fund and provide cover for the revival of the al-Hussein and Badr missiles under the cover of the Libyan al-Fatakh program.
Meanwhile, the Libyans were most interested in the Iraqi experience with biological weapons, particularly the advanced stages of the militarization projects. In the ensuing negotiations, Baghdad acknowledged that Iraq still possessed several biological weapons and warheads for them. The Iraqis would share these technologies with the Libyans provided that Tripoli agreed to also sustain and fund the revival of the Iraqi military nuclear program. By 1995, some of the Iraqi nuclear materials were being held in Algeria while the key systems and design elements were being hidden all over Iraq in dormant state. Iraqi experts were apprehensive that the lack of proper maintenance and storage conditions under the sand in desert temperatures were destroying the sophisticated equipment. Hence, the Iraqi negotiators suggested that Iraqi nuclear fuel could reach Libya by sea within weeks after the signing of an agreement, and that Iraqi experts in Libya would then be able to begin enriching it after installing more small or medium-sized kilns/furnaces.
As expected by the Iraqis, the lure of nuclear weapons was irresistible for Qadhafi.
A high-level Libyan delegation led by Major Raad Bin-Id al-Daffi from the Libyan Engineering and Military Industrialization arrived in Baghdad on August 30, 1995. They negotiated with the Iraqis a comprehensive agreement that still serves as the cornerstone of the Iraqi-Libyan strategic and military cooperation. The agreement stipulated the extent to which Libya would go to assist Iraq in the expansion of the Iraqis' own WMD programs as well as in evading the UN stringent surveillance of Iraq's military plants.
The first step was the quick transfer to Libya of an Iraqi military nuclear project that numerous Arab and European experts described as being "in its final stages". By then, after Kamal's "defection" went sour, Saddam gave up on keeping the key elements of the WMD programs in Iraq and ordered their swift transfer to Libya before the UN closed in on them. Hence, several experts and equipment were immediately dispatched to Libya to prepare for the transfer of the nuclear program.
The main item Baghdad was adamant on saving was a limited quantity of semi-enriched nuclear fuel transferred to the Aba Agricultural and Scientific Research Center, east of Baghdad, under the direct supervision of Lt.-Gen Amir Rashid, director the Iraqi Military Industrialization Organization (MIO). The initial transfer was made possible by the suspension of UN surveillance of this center after the Iraqis had moved its equipment to Abu-Ghurayb region near Baghdad. In the meantime, Iraq was hiding the nuclear fuel in large underground storage facilities near the Aba center. After conditioning the nuclear material for transportation, it was sent by sea to Libya within weeks.
Meanwhile, a high-level MIO delegation headed by Dr Jafar Diya Jafar, one of Iraq's leading nuclear scientists, arrived in Libya in mid October 1995 to oversee the installation of the small nuclear furnaces. The Iraqi nuclear program would be located at Sidi Abu Zurayq in the desert 380 km southwest of Tripoli. By the end of 1995, the MIO experts began enriching the Iraqi nuclear material having successfully installed the small- and medium-sized kilns/furnaces there.
The most important indication of the intimate strategic cooperation between Baghdad and Tripoli was in Western Europe. Since the mid-1990s, Iraqi intelligence has been diverting purchases of dual-use and sensitive technologies in Germany, Austria, and Switzerland to Libya. In the process, Libyan intelligence was given access to the Iraqis' most secure shipment routes -- where exported goods are shipped to Bulgaria where local companies are identified as the end-users, and from where the goods are forwarded illegally to Iraq and now also Libya.
Furthermore, starting the mid 1990s, Iraqi intelligence has been assisting Russian and other ex-Soviet scientists to acquire third-country passports in Central and Latin America so they can travel to and work in Iraq. Following the new cooperation agreements, Iraqi intelligence began sending these scientists to Libya for work on the joint Iraqi-Libyan WMD projects. Honduras was the site of a major program in 1995-96. Additional Iraqi intelligence operatives, all experts in the procurement of high-technology, arrived in Germany in early 1996. They began a still ongoing effort to revive dormant relationships as well as establish new ones. However, the reorganized Iraqi procurement system is now diverting the bulk of the goods to Libya rather than Iraq.
The first results of the January 1995 ballistic missile agreement were already showing by the Summer of that year. Using Western-made systems and computers smuggled from both Iraq and Europe, the highly experienced Iraqis succeeded to make sense in the Libyan convoluted missile program -- integrating the inputs and technologies from the numerous and often incompatible foreign sources. In the second half of 1996, the Iraqi scientists and know-how provided such a boost to the Libyan ballistic missile program, that NATO's threat assessment had to be revised. The new assessment, NATO Report MC 161/96, concludes tha Libya could be in possession of medium-range ballistic nuclear missiles pointed at the NATO Mediterranean flank by the year 2006. The NATO study predicts that within a decade, Qadhafi's Libya will have medium-range ballistic missiles with a range of between 1,000 and 3,000 km that can be fitted with nuclear, chemical, or bacteriological warheads.
In late 1995, Saddam Hussein finally relented and authorized the transfer to Libya the secrets of Iraq's most sensitive armament programs -- particularly the biological weapons program, which Qadhafi's wanted most. With the UN inspections now expected to remain in Iraq for the foreseeable future, Baghdad decided to retain in Iraq only the operational biological bombs and warheads, as well as the equipment required to sustain them in operational posture. In early 1996, Saddam ordered that the surviving sophisticated development and production systems as well as the extensive know how and related documentation would be transferred to Libya.
The large extent of the Iraqi biological warfare effort and the huge magnitude of the systems and documentation that have eluded the UN inspections can be deduced from the fact that it took the Iraqis more than a year to collect their material and prepare it for clandestine shipment to Libya. Only then, once Baghdad was ready to begin the transfer of the BW program to Libya, was Tripoli notified. The framework for the new deal between Libya and Iraq was signed in May during a visit to Baghdad by members of a Libyan industrialists' organization. Soon afterwards, high-level Libyan delegations arrived in Baghdad in mid-1997 to discuss the modalities of the upgrading of the Iraqi support for, and participation in, the Libyan WMD program. On the basis of these discussions, Baghdad and Tripoli finalized the signing of the May 1997 agreement that still dominates their expanding strategic cooperation.
Between late 1997 and early 1998, on the basis of this latest agreement, Iraq undertook two distinct moves that, once completed, would dramatically alter Libya's WMD capabilities.
First, starting late 1997, Baghdad moved to dramatically upgrade the Libyan Chemical Weapons programs. Senior Iraqi scientists with experience in CW production joined other Iraqi researchers some of whom have been in Libya since the 1991 Gulf War, working on CW projects first in Rabta and presently in the plant inside a mountain at Tarhunah, 60 km south-east of Tripoli. The Iraqis are experts in the production of nerve agents and other chemical weapons. The Iraqis' primary contribution is in expediting the move from the research and development phase to the mass production of operational weapons. Once integrated into the Libyan CW program, the Iraqi expertise will enable Libya to achieve self-sufficiency in the production of chemical weapons. Given the current pace of construction in the underground chemical production plant near Tarhunah, the plant can become operational by the year 2000.
The second move was providing Libya with the key to operational Biological Weapons. About a dozen Iraqi scientists involved in biological research arrived in Libya around the beginning of 1998, where special living quarters have been arranged for them. They are to help the Libyans develop a new biological warfare complex under the guise of a Tripoli-area medical facility called General Health Laboratories. The Libyan biological warfare program is believed to be codenamed Ibn Hayan. Since this program will be based in its entirety on the Iraqi covert program to develop biological weapons, the Iraqi experts are expected to reach the weaponization phase quite quickly. Libya is interested in bombs and missile warheads with anthrax and botulism agents. For the running of the Ibn Hayan project, Qadhafi established a special office within the Libyan Ministry of Defense that reports directly to him. The program has been given the highest possible priority by Qadhafi and both Libyan and Iraqi procurement operatives throughout the world have been told to spare no funds in order to expedite the purchase of the sub-systems the Iraqi experts require for the "weaponization" programs.
And so, the US is planning an instant-gratification bombing campaign that would neither destroy Iraq's WMD operational capabilities nor touch its main WMD production lines in Libya and Sudan.
At the same time, the strategic mega-trends in the Middle East, exacerbated by the current crisis environment, entice a dramatic breakout in the form of a regional war. Saddam Hussein is not the only local leader aspiring for war as the best way out of a political deadlock. In the case of Iraq, with the entire Iraqi Armed Forces -- from tanks and artillery pieces to aircraft, and from ammunition stockpiles to fuel dumps -- high on the US target list, Baghdad has a special incentive to "lose" them in heroic martyrdom -- say, spearheading and instigating a regional war with Israel -- rather than have them destroyed by US bombs and missiles. There are enough non-state entities -- from Arafat's pro-Iraq al-Fatah forces to the Islamist HAMAS, HizbAllah and Islamic Jihad -- who would gladly provide the spectacular and lethal provocation required to spark the cataclysmic eruption.
No WMD are required to set the Muslim World ablaze.
Meanwhile, the panic afflicting Israel only reduces Jerusalem's ability to make a realistic threat assessment, and formulate its strategy in a cool and calculated manner. And the US bombing campaign will only add some explosives and fuel to the flames.
Wrong.
But I think he's a little bit like everyone in the region. 50% truth and 50% BS. The problem is figuring out which is which.
bttt for reference