The best info we've been getting is from NRO, who seem to be implying a Toomey win (as if they have embargoed polling data).
One of the NRO crew is predicting Toomey 51 Specter 48.
Patriot News: "Magic Bullet" was early sign of Specter's Independence Streak
"When I finished my discourse, the chief justice remained silent," Specter wrote. "After a moment, he turned on his heel and stepped away, still saying nothing."
But when the commission voted to approve the theory for its report -- some said the theory won 4-3, others 5-2 -- it did so because Warren had adopted Specter's explanation.
The commission's "Single-Bullet Theory" at least temporarily tamped down the public's panic, defusing fears of domestic conspiracies and Cold War-motivated, foreign-sponsored assassins.....
http://www.pattoomey.org/news_item.asp?pid=153