STRATFOR INTELLIGENCE BRIEF
Summary
A leading militant commander in Saudi Arabia has praised the May 1 attacks in the Red Sea port city of Yanbu. Details about the attack suggest that jihadism might be becoming a grassroots phenomenon. If so, the likelihood for and frequency of attacks against Western and government facilities in the kingdom and elsewhere will rise exponentially.
Analysis
Abdel Aziz al-Muqrin, Saudi Arabia's top jihadist leader, issued a statement May 6 praising the four Islamists who killed five Western employees of oil contracting company ABB Lummus in the Saudi city of Yanbu. Al-Mqurin urged other Saudis to follow their example and carefully plan, prepare and execute similar attacks.
Stratfor indicated last week that many independent jihadist groups had surfaced since the Sept. 11 attacks. The attack in Yanbu indicates that the phenomenon might be entering a new phase in which individuals acting alone or in small groups carry out attacks.
If true, the multitude of individuals influenced by al Qaeda and taking cues from other established groups will multiply, and Yanbu-style attacks are likely to become much more frequent.
The widespread belief has been that the loss of Afghanistan as a training ground put a dent into planning, preparation and execution of operations -- particularly by novices. A successful operation entails avoiding detection, engaging in surveillance and training in weapons and explosives.
It appears that those at the helm of the Islamist militant movement had contingency plans prepared in the event they lost Afghanistan. Examining the behavior of the non-Afghan fighters during the U.S. military campaign in fall 2001, there did not appear to be much of an actual al Qaeda presence. Those who stood their ground and fought the Americans were either Taliban or non-Afghans foot soldiers. The veterans of al Qaeda training camps relocated into other states before and during the war.
There have been reports that hundreds of al Qaeda operatives made their way to other countries once they reached the Pakistani port city of Karachi. Those 600 or so in custody at the detention facility at Guantanamo, Cuba, appear to be mostly Taliban and al Qaeda rank and file, who are at best foot soldiers and the occasional seasoned operative. There are a handful of high-profile al Qaeda members -- such as Abu Zubaydah, Khalid Sheikh Muhammad and Ramzi bin al Shibh -- who have been nabbed and are in detention at Bagram Air Base, Diego Garcia or other undisclosed locations.
Jihadist communiques from the Arabian Peninsula and statements from the Saudi and Yemeni governments show that many on their wanted lists are veterans of the Afghan camps. These men safely arrived at their destinations and might have started their own groups. They also appear to have improvised tactics by avoiding formal groups and staying away from training in the traditional manner.
Despite the loss of the operational hub, the phenomenon of jihadism is flourishing. In the interest of continued proliferation, highly trained veterans are trying to disseminate their tactical knowledge and experience through unorthodox means. The al Bataar newsletter, released weekly from the Arabian Peninsula, is one such outlet.
The authors of this publication have tried to simplify training for the uninitiated so that they gradually develop the knowledge, skills and abilities they would have acquired in Afghanistan. Al Bataar offers crash courses on the particulars of planning a successful operation, training and methods of maintaining secrecy.
Stratfor sources say that some of the attackers had been employed inside the company for as many as seven years. They say one of the assailants during the shootout walked by a Philippine employee and said, "You are not what we are looking for," indicating they were targeting Westerners. Another source says two militants managed to escape from the scene.
Even a cursory examination of the Yanbu attack demonstrates that it does not take a lot of training, ability or experience to pull off such an operation. From the language used by al-Muqrin in his statement praising the attackers, Yanbu was the work of volunteers uaffiliated with any group. Three of them were employed at ABB Lummus -- further reinforcing the notion that the ideology of jihadism is being taken up by average Saudis, not just social misfits.
The movement away from formal organizations by making training lessons available in the public domain has allowed the jihadist movement to sustain itself and tap into the grassroots of society. This bodes ill for the security of foreign companies in the kingdom -- and the future of the Saudi monarchy.
Date: 2004-05-15 Source: STRATFOR (www.stratfor.com) Location: Saudi Arabia