Highlights of the Presidential Race
Among the states in Harris Interactives October poll, Al Gore holds a 262 to 122 Electoral College advantage over George Bush. Overall, including best estimates for states not in the Harris Interactive poll, it is estimated that Gore holds a 317 to 221 advantage over Bush, with 270 needed to win. According to Harris Interactive analysts, it is important to recognize that Gores advantage is based on very narrow leads in a few large states:
Florida (25 Electoral College votes), Gore leads by 49% to 43% in October, down from 52% to 43% in September. Missouri (11), Gore leads by just 48% to 44%. New Jersey (15), Gore leads by 48% to 40%, down from 58% to 34% in September.
Ohio (21), Gore leads by just 48% to 45%, down slightly from 49% to 44%. Washington (11), Gore leads by just one point (45% to 44%). Small shifts in these states can decisively change the Electoral College equation. The presidential election is truly either candidates to win at this point. The possibility should not be discounted that one candidate, more likely Gore because of the concentration of his support in larger states, might win an Electoral College majority while the other, more likely Bush, could win a plurality of the popular vote.