[Torie]

I suspect the incumbent is on the ropes, unless he fashions a new strategy. An incumbent leading this narrowly, with the trend deteriorating, and poor performances in debates, suggests the curtain is coming down. Specter's best bet is some late polls, suggesting Toomey can't win a general election, while Specter can.

[WOSG]

General elections polls are not relevent right now, since Toomey doesnt have the name ID he will have after he defeats Specter.

See post 40 for a brilliant analysis of the PA race, for why Toomey is more electable against Hoeffel. Specter has the wrong profile to go up against Hoeffel and could be upset. Toomey, like Santorum, can win blue-collar social conservative votes that Specter doesnt win. Toomey has the edge in November.

[KQQL]

toomey could win........but it will depend who turns out to vote.