[AuH2ORepublican]

I think Pat Toomey is less vulnerable to a Joe Hoeffel candidacy than is that old RINO Arlen Specter. If Specter wins the primary, I think he'd have a hard time against Hoeffel, since Specter usually loses big outside of the Philly metro area but wins by running even in Philadelphia and piling up huge margins in Bucks, Montgomery and Delaware Counties. That was his formula when he beat Lynn Yeakel (his last strong Democrat challenger) 49%-46% in 1992. But Joe Hoeffel represents Montco and SE Philly in Congress, and Specter can't count on supermajorities in the Philly metro area. So in order to win, Specter would need to win votes from socially conservative but economically liberal blue-collar Democrats in places like Erie and Scranton and Allentown and Wikes-Barre and the blue-collar Pittsburgh suburbs, something that he seems incapable of doing because he has nothing to offer to such voters (why vote for a Democrat-lite when they can vote for the real thing in Hoeffel?). In my honest opinion, the only Republican in the race who can defeat Hoeffel is Pat Toomey, who has been elected and reelected in a blue-collar Democrat district based in Allentown and Bethlehem and whose road to victory was paved by conservative Rick Santorum's two Senate runs (not coincidentally, Santorum represented a blue-collar Democrat Pittsburgh-area district in Congress in the early 1990s). And Toomey is a real Republican, too, unlike Arlen Specter, would become Chairman of the Judiciary Committee and may do to conservative Bush nominees what he did to Robert Bork when he was nominated to the Supreme Court (since Specter would never again have to face Republican primary voters, what's to stop him?). The choice for conservative and moderate Republicans is clear---support Pat Toomey for the Senate.

[WOSG]

I think Pat Toomey is less vulnerable to a Joe Hoeffel candidacy than is that old RINO Arlen Specter. If Specter wins the primary, I think he'd have a hard time against Hoeffel, since Specter usually loses big outside of the Philly metro area but wins by running even in Philadelphia and piling up huge margins in Bucks, Montgomery and Delaware Counties. That was his formula when he beat Lynn Yeakel (his last strong Democrat challenger) 49%-46% in 1992. But Joe Hoeffel represents Montco and SE Philly in Congress, and Specter can't count on supermajorities in the Philly metro area. So in order to win, Specter would need to win votes from socially conservative but economically liberal blue-collar Democrats in places like Erie and Scranton and Allentown and Wikes-Barre and the blue-collar Pittsburgh suburbs, something that he seems incapable of doing because he has nothing to offer to such voters (why vote for a Democrat-lite when they can vote for the real thing in Hoeffel?). In my honest opinion, the only Republican in the race who can defeat Hoeffel is Pat Toomey,who has been elected and reelected in a blue-collar Democrat district based in Allentown and Bethlehem and whose road to victory was paved by conservative Rick Santorum's two Senate runs (not coincidentally, Santorum represented a blue-collar Democrat Pittsburgh-area district in Congress in the early 1990s).

Once again - brilliant analysis.

Toomey. More electable. The ONLY conservative running. There is no other choice!