Based on what?
Our Intel is supposed to predict each time a crazy Cleric wants to get his name in the paper by sending OTHERS out to die on his behalf? Come on.
Before you can have effective counter-insurgency, you have to have insurgency first. No Intel is going to tell you when the natives are going to revolt over the ramblings of some nut.
They will be burger by morning. That is what matters.
I have posted in this thread my opinion that we don't know how bad this surprise was to our forces. We should have an idea about that in 48 hours or so, when the results of today's attacks come in.
I know it's wrong to day "12 Marines were killed! Our intel blew it!" War always offers the possibility for setbacks and suprises.
My fear over the last few days was that the Marines engaging Fallujah would be hit in the rear. Maybe our brass had similar concerns, and discounted the possibility of a wider uprising.