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I think that's unlikely, assuming it were that close. The following states were very close last time: Oregon, New Mexico, Florida, Iowa, Wisconsin, New Hampshire, Minnesota. All of these states went for Gore except Florida and New Hampshire. If Bush does better this time around in the popular vote, one would think that some the 5 states which went for Gore would go Bush's way.

True.

But remember Dales' hypothesis: Proximity to Ground Zero is a hidden factor. ALL of those states you mention are far from Ground Zero and are currently polling the same or better for Kerry now as compared to Gore in 2000, except NH, which is the closest to Ground Zero (and there were numerous New Hampshiries on the ill-fated flights from Boston). (RealClearPolitics has those spreads in their state-by-state table).

If Bush does better only in the "Ground Zero" states, with maybe a little boost in a few Red states, he gains no EVs no matter how many more popular votes he wins.