[jack gillis]

Even if you toss CT, I think the analysis still holds.

Massachusetts was hit hard. Not as hard as Jersey and NY, but hard. Let's say a straight 8% swing (4% of voters just flat switch votes). Doesn't dent the lead.

And I'm agreeing with your idea. But even a 15% swing in NJ and NY (and that's a big swing), won't switch those states.

What I'm suggesting is that the effect you identify may be real ... and exploitable by the GOP, but all it may do is change the popular outcome.

New Jersey might be closer, but close only counts in horseshoes.

[spokeshave]

Arnie delivered Prop 57 and 58 in California...squeezed $2.0B out of the teachers and looks like finessing the state unemployment benefits fiasco and getting some billions out of the gambling tribes..

And all Without Raising Taxes.

Could be Arnie can deliver CA also....but there needs to be some increased GOP spending on ads.

[Dales]

But even a 15% swing in NJ and NY (and that's a big swing), won't switch those states.

Gore only won Jersey by 16%.

And this time, fellow tri-stater Joe Lieberman won't be on the ticket.

I do think you are right, that this effect is likely to only manifest itself in the popular vote, since most of the involved states are too far gone.

But the more I am looking at things, the more I am starting to think New Jersey could be winnable. Just to pull a number out of my hat, maybe a 15% chance, if they spend the money to advertise and invest in a GOTV organization. That's a big if, and I am not sure where the break-even point is.

PS- any 9/11 effect on Massachusetts would probably be offset by it being Kerry's home state.