[not-alone]

I read yesterday that there has been a large shift for Bush in the 17 states he is advertising in. Do you have those new polls?

[Dales]

I comment on that on my blog (go here and then follow the link to the Blog).

Basically, that tidbit which was in the USAToday writeup of the Gallup poll did more to make me question Gallup's polling than it made me feel comfortable about the trends in the battleground states.

What I wrote was:

6:14 PM EST: According to the USA Today, Bush's TV ads have sparked a big turnaround in the polls, particularly in the battleground states.

A USA TODAY/CNN/Gallup Poll shows a remarkable turnaround in 17 battleground states where polls and historic trends indicate the race will be close, and where the Bush campaign has aired TV ads...The ads have been one factor in wiping away an inflated lead Kerry held in those states. Most of them have had primaries or caucuses that allowed Democrats to dominate the news and Kerry to emerge as a victor. In a survey taken in mid-February, Kerry led Bush by 28 percentage points in those states, 63% to 35%.

Kerry had a 28 point lead in the 17 battleground states in mid-February? Patent nonsense. He didn't have a 28 point lead in any of them. As a matter of fact, I have no record of any state, battleground or not, where Kerry had a 20 point lead in mid-February. The closest to that level-- Rhode Island, which had an 18 point gap in mid February.

Here are the 17 states the article is referencing, and how the polls stacked up for them:

1. Oregon: no mid Feb. poll available, but a March 5 poll had Kerry up 5.
2. Washington: A February poll had Kerry up 12.
3. Iowa: A mid-February poll had Kerry up 7.
4. New Mexico: No February poll, but a fall poll had the Democrats up 3 and a mid-March one had Kerry up 1.
5. Maine: No poll available
6. Minnesota: A late January poll had Kerry up 2.
7. Florida: A late February poll had Bush up 5.
8. Ohio: No February poll available.
9. Wisconsin: a late January poll had Kerry up 16.
10. West Virginia: No poll available. A mid March poll had the race tied.
11. Pennsylvania: One mid-Feb poll had Kerry up 5, one had him up 1.
12. New Hampshire: a mid-Feb poll had Kerry up 15.
13. Missouri: A mid-Feb poll had Kerry up 3.
14. Arkansas: No poll available
15. Arizona: A mid-Feb poll had Bush up 8.
16. Nevada: a mid-Feb poll had Bush up 1.
17. Michigan: a mid-February poll had Kerry up 4.

Is it likely Kerry was up, overall, in the big 17 mid-February? Yes. Was he up by anything approaching 28 points?

Not even close.