Electoral College Breakdown 2004, March 31st Update

ECB2004 ^

[lysie]

Take care, my friend.

[Neets]

Just now seeing this....thanks a bunch my sweet dear neighbor!!!

[JLS]

Thanks for the excellent analysis.

I wonder if the missing ingrediant in PA this year might be that it is having a 9-11 effect like that you conjecture for NY, NJ and MD? PA does contain the 3rd 9-11 site with the Western PA airplane crash site?

Might PA be trending more toward Bush than say Ohio which would usually be more in the GOP column because of that? Maybe PA feels more of a relationship to the attacks because the of that?

[MattinNJ]

I got the *BLEEP* kicked out of me in Wisconsin. Oh wait, sorry. Stripes flashback.

ROTFLMAO.

If Bush wins Jersey, I'll eat my hat.

[olde north church]

NJ has brought eletion fraud to an art form.

[Dales]

I suppose it is possible, but it doesn't strike me as the reason. I actually live in Pennsylvania, and I am originally from New York. The people around here seem to talk about terrorism and the attacks of 9/11 the way I hear people in other states (when I travel on business) talk. The people I know in New York, however, don't. I know that despite me living here in Pennsylvania, 9/11 hits me hardest because of New York, not because of the flight that went down fairly nearby.

[kevkrom]

Maryland now Leans for Kerry, and is perilously close to falling into the battleground territory. Could this be an extension of the same effect I have noticed in New York and New Jersey? Could the attack on the Pentagon on 9/11 be causing some normally Democrat voters to consider the President?

As I've posted on another thread about the Maryland result, y'all have to remember that "jobs" isn't as large of an issue around here, because it is very easy to slip back and forth between public and private sectors. At the same time most of the country feeling the pinch of private sector job cuts, the federal government was picking up employment in defense and homeland security. This is especially true in the technology sector. A lot of people have changed jobs, but there aren't the same reports of not being able to find a new one when laid off.

Between terrorism and jobs/economy, the Dems don't have the same strength around here as they usually do, though they still have large blocks of voters who vote on social issues.

[Wallace T.]

That Ohio is trending more Democratic than its fellow industrial state neighbors, Michigan and Pennsylvania, is unusual. It may be that local politics have a role, with Ohio under an unpopular GOP governor, while the other two have unpopular Democratic chief executives.

[JLS]

I understand what you are saying. Maybe it could be indirect as in having a 9-11 site in Western PA, has put the President in those locales in a positive light more often than other places around the country. I believe that Bush has spoken at some PA site events, just as he has at NYC site events and DC area site events?

But then maybe it is just that the entire MidAtlantic region is become more of a battleground like the Midwest region for any number of reasons. PA, MD, DEL, NJ and NY do seem to form this region. I know DEL is strong for Kerry but the other four seem to be split and close in each case?

[Tennessean4Bush]

Read the job numbers that came out from the BLS this morning.

What job numbers came from BLS this morning. I thought that was tomorrow and Friday.

[demlosers]

Good work. I look forward to your posts.

[L,TOWM]

Dude,

You have to "come out" to San Francisco. That place makes Detroit look damm near moderate in comparison.

Or were you excluding the homo-Chomsky wing of the dims from your analysis?

[republicanwizard]

state and local employment numbers for February...

[So Cal Rocket]

This new Indiana Poll should darken the color of that state a bit:

http://www.imaweb.com/BellwetherPoll.pdf

[Vigilanteman]

Pure ssspeculation on my part, but one theory has it that NJ and PA are leaning Bush because of broken promises from RAT governors. OH is leaning RAT because of broken promises from a RINO governor. I'd gladly trade OH for PA and NJ.

[JLS]

Interesting theory, I could certainly see that. That trade would make it a tough on our nerves up to election day. In such cases you always worry that their state, NJ for example, will return to its natural voting at the end and our state, Ohio for example will not.

[Tennessean4Bush]

Yeah, thanks. I saw a link to it after I posed the question.

[jack gillis]

I like your "9/11 effect" theory a lot; however, it carries a somewhat counter-intuitive consequence.

Consider. The states most directly and personally affected by 9/11 are Massachusetts, Connecticut, New York, New Jersey, Maryland, the District of Columbia and Virginia. Those are the places where lived most of the people who died. All reliably Dem states except VA, which is reliably GOP. A five or ten point swing in any of those places. won't change any electoral votes. You can easily turn 1,500,000 votes from Dem to GOP in those states .... EASILY .... and not switch any EVs.

Add to that the possibility that Bush will gain strength in many of the non-competitive GOP states simply because neither team will campaign there to move numbers, and you get the following scenario:

Bush needs to beat Kerry by a FULL point in the popular vote in order to assure himself an Electoral College victory. Otherwise, we have the distinct possibility, as think I mentioned to you before in one of your first breakdowns, of a reversal of 2000: Bush ins the popular vote but loses the Electoral College.

[maro]

Maryland is a weirld state, having both wealthy Montgomery County and blue colar Bal'more, as well as a large black middle class. I would really be interested in how the Maryland polls break down by county. Does anyone have that?

[Dales]

I don't mean to short shrift those who died from Massachusetts, but I can't consider it to be a state that was overly impacted by 9/11. New York, Connecticut, New Jersey, Virginia, Maryland, and DC are all in another level of magnitude from Massachusetts.

Connecticut does not seem to be following the theory, which could mean the theory is wrong, or it could mean that 9/11 impacted CT less. My hunch was that it was the latter. I then went to Google to test my hunch.

I found the following site, 9/11 Dead By Jurisdiction.

Connecticut- 65 dead.
New Jersey- 715 dead.
New York- 2574 dead.
Massachusetts- 94 dead.

For the WTC attacks, Massachusetts and Connecticut simply did not face nearly the impact that New York and New Jersey did-- as such it would make sense that any such effect would impact them less or not at all.

As for the Pentagon attack, it was much less deadly, but the deaths hit Maryland hard; 47 dead. Virginia had 85 dead. And unlike Massachusetts, it was an attack on this area. Psychologically, that has to matter.

And now that I think about it, the fear of terrorist actions was probably hammered home more in Maryland/Northern Virginia thanks to the DC sniper.

As for flipping states, I don't think you will see many of them flip. DC sure isn't. Connecticut isn't. And I am doubtful that Maryland would either. But I am keeping my eye on New Jersey. I used to think that once a new poll would come out, it would be solidly in the Kerry columns. I now only half think that. I think that it is equally likely that it remains a tossup or better for Bush.

It shouldn't be too long before we get another poll there.

Should it?