Electoral College Breakdown 2004, March 31st Update

And on an aside, Go Pat Go!

Toomey, that is.

1 posted on 03/31/2004 7:56:05 AM PST by Dales

2 posted on 03/31/2004 7:56:30 AM PST by Dales

To: Dales; Coop; nevergiveup; scan58; AuH2ORepublican; BoomerBob; Galatians513; onyx; KJacob; ...

3 posted on 03/31/2004 8:02:03 AM PST by Neets (“I now know Him in a more personal way than I have. It is as it was " Jim Caviezel)

My own personal ping to make up for my snub last week? :-) Thank you kindly.

4 posted on 03/31/2004 8:04:52 AM PST by Coop ("Hero" is the last four-letter word this veteran would use to describe John Kerry)

I know the polls aren't supporting it, but go ahead and put Kentucky in the safe column. Kerry won't show his face there. Any democrat money spent in the state will be in the 4th and 6th district races.

5 posted on 03/31/2004 8:04:55 AM PST by brothers4thID

Pingeroonie

Pingeroonie to myself.
I'll come back to study this later.

6 posted on 03/31/2004 8:08:32 AM PST by onyx (Kerry' s a Veteran, but so were Lee Harvey Oswald, Timothy McVeigh and Benedict Arnold.)

Good break down there. But my stomach isn't ready for this. I am still dealing with the acid reflux from 2000 here in Florida.

7 posted on 03/31/2004 8:09:43 AM PST by My Favorite Headache (Rush 30th Anniversary Tour Tickets On Sale Now!)

8 posted on 03/31/2004 8:12:28 AM PST by Neets (“I now know Him in a more personal way than I have. It is as it was " Jim Caviezel)

Ciao Bella!!!

How're you doing girlfriend?
I ain't left yet.
Just too stupid to read this properly right now.

9 posted on 03/31/2004 8:14:40 AM PST by onyx (Kerry' s a Veteran, but so were Lee Harvey Oswald, Timothy McVeigh and Benedict Arnold.)

Takin it ONE DAY at A TIME lately, toots.

((HUGS))

Catch ya later

10 posted on 03/31/2004 8:20:23 AM PST by Neets (“I now know Him in a more personal way than I have. It is as it was " Jim Caviezel)

I believe that New Jersey is very much in play. They Asbury Park Press recently did a poll on Bush v. Kerry and Bush came out ahead by 8 points.

11 posted on 03/31/2004 8:20:40 AM PST by freeperfromnj

Very nice update. I think that the PA color on the map though should be blue.

According to the Gallup poll, which Presidential race featured the most lead changes from January through election day?

Bush/Gore 2000. (I'm pretty sure Kennedy/Nixon would be the runner up).

12 posted on 03/31/2004 8:21:42 AM PST by AntiGuv (When the countdown hits zero, something's gonna happen..)

To: AntiGuv; Dales

Yes, and OK should be a lighter blue.

13 posted on 03/31/2004 8:26:38 AM PST by Sloth (We cannot defeat foreign enemies of the Constitution if we yield to the domestic ones.)

Maryland looks too dark, too.

14 posted on 03/31/2004 8:27:29 AM PST by Sloth (We cannot defeat foreign enemies of the Constitution if we yield to the domestic ones.)

15 posted on 03/31/2004 8:27:48 AM PST by XRdsRev

To: Sloth; AntiGuv

Yes, they should. They are now-- when I made a copy of the "latest" map, somehow it grabbed an old copy. I don't think those were the only two states shaded wrong, but they should all be shaded right now. Thanks!

16 posted on 03/31/2004 8:28:43 AM PST by Dales

Very nice! This is a useful discussion tool.

17 posted on 03/31/2004 8:43:01 AM PST by Tarantulas

Great analysis. Thanks Dales!

I would love to see PA go for Bush - and Toomey.
Go Pat Go!

18 posted on 03/31/2004 8:52:53 AM PST by grassroot (Toomey looks good to me!)

I read yesterday that there has been a large shift for Bush in the 17 states he is advertising in. Do you have those new polls?

19 posted on 03/31/2004 8:56:45 AM PST by not-alone

I comment on that on my blog (go here and then follow the link to the Blog).

Basically, that tidbit which was in the USAToday writeup of the Gallup poll did more to make me question Gallup's polling than it made me feel comfortable about the trends in the battleground states.

What I wrote was:

6:14 PM EST: According to the USA Today, Bush's TV ads have sparked a big turnaround in the polls, particularly in the battleground states.
A USA TODAY/CNN/Gallup Poll shows a remarkable turnaround in 17 battleground states where polls and historic trends indicate the race will be close, and where the Bush campaign has aired TV ads...The ads have been one factor in wiping away an inflated lead Kerry held in those states. Most of them have had primaries or caucuses that allowed Democrats to dominate the news and Kerry to emerge as a victor. In a survey taken in mid-February, Kerry led Bush by 28 percentage points in those states, 63% to 35%.
Kerry had a 28 point lead in the 17 battleground states in mid-February? Patent nonsense. He didn't have a 28 point lead in any of them. As a matter of fact, I have no record of any state, battleground or not, where Kerry had a 20 point lead in mid-February. The closest to that level-- Rhode Island, which had an 18 point gap in mid February.
Here are the 17 states the article is referencing, and how the polls stacked up for them:

Oregon: no mid Feb. poll available, but a March 5 poll had Kerry up 5.
Washington: A February poll had Kerry up 12.
Iowa: A mid-February poll had Kerry up 7.
New Mexico: No February poll, but a fall poll had the Democrats up 3 and a mid-March one had Kerry up 1.
Maine: No poll available
Minnesota: A late January poll had Kerry up 2.
Florida: A late February poll had Bush up 5.
Ohio: No February poll available.
Wisconsin: a late January poll had Kerry up 16.
West Virginia: No poll available. A mid March poll had the race tied.
Pennsylvania: One mid-Feb poll had Kerry up 5, one had him up 1.
New Hampshire: a mid-Feb poll had Kerry up 15.
Missouri: A mid-Feb poll had Kerry up 3.
Arkansas: No poll available
Arizona: A mid-Feb poll had Bush up 8.
Nevada: a mid-Feb poll had Bush up 1.
Michigan: a mid-February poll had Kerry up 4.

Is it likely Kerry was up, overall, in the big 17 mid-February? Yes. Was he up by anything approaching 28 points?
Not even close.

20 posted on 03/31/2004 9:03:12 AM PST by Dales

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