[lelio]

The only thing that can stop John Kerry from winning the Democratic nomination now is an endorsement from Al Gore.

I'm going to work up a chart for all states and how many jobs they've lost (Walter Williams' "we're not sending jobs overseas" notwithstanding) versus who they have voted for.

The top 4 states that lost jobs since 2001 are Indiana, Mississippi, Ohio and Michigan. Gore won Michigan's 18 electoral votes, while Bush picked up the other states' 40 votes. If anyone thinks this is a Bush cakewalk they're delusional.

[phil_will1]

"If anyone thinks this is a Bush cakewalk they're delusional."

I certainly agree with that. My overall take on the Presidential campaign at this early juncture is that Bush has some serious problems with his base because of
1. Lack of fiscal discipline
2. immigration reform
3. Medicare
4. Lack of attention to the need for Fundamental Tax Reform and the jobs that it would create

Interestingly enough, Susan Estridge is the only "talking head" I have heard who has alluded to this point. Karl Rove's strategy is pretty obvious - since Bush has no challenger fron his political right, his base has nowhere to go. Therefore, it makes sense to co-opt the Democrats on some of their issues and try to capture as many of the swing votes in the middle as possible. However, Rove may have underestimated the disenchantment in the base that his strategy would create.

The thing that may save Bush is that the Democrats have run such an emotional and irrational campaign and are on the verge of nominating someone who is sooooo liberal. We will hear many times between now and November that he is to the left of Ted Kennedy. The fact that he shifts with the political winds is another huge gift for Bush and his team.

Bush is certainly vulnerable, but I do not at this point see the Dems being politically astute enough to exploit the opportunity that he has given them.