Toomey/Specter: 10 POINT RACE!!! Toomey Gains Big Time!!!

Wall Street Journal's OpinionJournal's Political Diary ^ | March 15,2004 | Wall Street Journal's OpinionJournal's Political Diary

[GeneralHavoc]

The following is from OpinionJournal's Political Diary March 15,2004:

Conservative Challenger Gains On Liberal Specter

There is a reason that Pennsylvania GOP Senator Arlen Specter has been spending so much of his $9 million campaign kitty on ads attacking his conservative primary challenger, Rep. Pat Toomey: The April 27 race is surprisingly competitive. A new survey by the Polling Company finds Mr. Specter has only a 47% to 37% lead over Mr. Toomey, a surprisingly low figure for a four-term incumbent. The survey roughly mirrors a Quinnipiac poll last month that found that only 49% of Republicans believe Mr. Specter deserves re-election.

Aware of his reputation as a liberal leaning senator, Mr. Specter has gone on the attack and begun questioning Mr. Toomey's conservative credentials. One ad accused Mr. Toomey of being pro-gambling and against abstinence education. Mr. Toomey says he voted in favor of a bill doubling money for abstinence education, but against a later amendment that would have provided even more funding for the cause. As for the pro-gambling charge, Mr. Toomey says the ad completely distorts a warning he made about state officials "getting addicted to this new source of revenue" if they legalized slot machines at racetracks.

The race has become a classic confrontation between liberal and conservative Republicans. While Mr. Specter is favored, conservative grass-roots activists are effectively targeting Mr. Specter as an obstacle to lower federal spending and tort reform. The race will only heat up between now and next month's primary and should start gathering national media attention.

[HostileTerritory]

Was the poll independent or was it commissioned by the Club For Growth or the Toomey campaign?

[nickcarraway]

BUMP

[NeoCaveman]

GOP senator: Ashcroft should consider recusal on leak probe [Arlen Specter]

Specter against D.C. plan: Claims program violates the First Amendment

Novak: DEMOCRATS LOVE SPECTER

Go Toomey!

[conservativecorner]

Thanks much for the link! Let's kick the RINO Senators out!!

[Common Tator]

Toomey is going to win this race! He is picking up all the momentum!

About a third of the Republicans are very conservative. But about half are not nearly as conservative as Toomy.

Toomey won't win this race. He is at 37 percent and that is where he will stay.

Toomey has as much chance of beating Spector as Tom McClintock had of beating Arnie. Three out of 4 undecideds could break for Toomey and he would still lose. This looks like a 55 to 45 race. That is a big win for Spector.

All Toomey will accomplish is to convince other candidates that they need to be as liberal as Spector to win in Pennsylvania.

[Badray]

"Campaign Finance Reform No Child Left Behind Medicare Prescription Drugs Immigration Control and Reform GWB support of Spector over Toomey More Funding Dollars for the NEA than Incr'd Border Security Not One Veto of A Spending Bill in Three Years Poor support of Judicial Candidates in the Senate, (No Lobbying)

It's hard to convince me to vote for him on his record. Tax Cuts and the War on Terror are great. There has to be more.

Alan Keyes said:"The lesser of two evils is still evil"

The most convincing argument for voting for B/C'04 is appointment of Supreme Court justices who will probably have more influence in the next 30 years than the Executive or the Legislative Branches.

If GWB loses this election, it is because the people who put him there in 2000 have lost faith in him. It is his fault, not theirs."

Now you sound like that radical Bush basher, what's his name? Aah, Badray. Yea, you sound like that guy.

You must be pretty smart. ;-)

[GeneralHavoc]

"Toomey won't win this race. He is at 37 percent and that is where he will stay."

Uh, dude, look at the poll figures at www.politicspa.com

17% is undecided. If he can get a good chunk of those undecided and keep up the momentum, he wins. The biggest enemy he faces is name recognition, not Specter.

Oh yeah, and you are way off when you suggest only 33% of the PA Republican party is conservative. If 33% of voters in the US in most polls consider themselves conservative, that's insane to suggest in the GOP only 33 or 37% are conservative themselves.

Oh yeah, and finally, Bush is going to get killed in PA with a liberal like Specter on the ticket with him and WE WILL lost the Senate seat. Trust me, conservatives will simply not vote for Arlen or vote against him, while with Toomey on the ticket Bush will have an energized base coming out to the polls.

[hobbes1]

17% is undecided

Right and in a 47-37 race he needs 14% of the undecideds to break his way.

If you are going to be that upset having Arleen Sphincter as your senator, take the better odds, and Buy a lottery ticket and hope to move.

[JHL]

I don't live in PA, but if I did I'd vote for a democrat before I voted for Specter -- any democrat. Specter is in line to be the next chairman of the Senate Judiciary Committee. If that happens any hope of seating a conservative Justice on the court is lost. The GOP will not lose control of the senate if Specter loses. I would love to see Toomey win this away from Specter, but if he doesn't, I urge my PA brethren to vote for anybody but Specter. Control of the Supreme Court is at stake, and that is more important than the GOP holding on to this seat in PA.

[GeneralHavoc]

"Right and in a 47-37 race he needs 14% of the undecideds to break his way."

You are forgetting one big thing: Many people are supporting Specter simply because they have no idea who Pat is or think he is 50 points out.

Specter will lose a few points easy when voters find out who Pat is and how competitive the race is, and if the undecided fall our way, its a WIN!

[hosepipe]

A RINO is just a donkey with horn a glued on his nose.. Toomey must not be fooled..

[Palai]

I don't live in PA, but if I did I'd vote for a democrat before I voted for Specter -- any democrat. Specter is in line to be the next chairman of the Senate Judiciary Committee. If that happens any hope of seating a conservative Justice on the court is lost. The GOP will not lose control of the senate if Specter loses. I would love to see Toomey win this away from Specter, but if he doesn't, I urge my PA brethren to vote for anybody but Specter. Control of the Supreme Court is at stake, and that is more important than the GOP holding on to this seat in PA.

You are exactly right.

[ForOurFuture]

Toomey won't win this race. He is at 37 percent and that is where he will stay.

Nah. In 1998 two "names on the ballot" (I call them that because in the true sense of the word they really cannot be called candidates. They had no money and ran no real campaign.) together got 35% against Specter in the GOP primary. I count it as extremely unlikely that Toomey, a current Congressman, after running a legitimate statewide campaign with money to spend, TV ads, credible name recognition, many endorsements, etc., manages to get only 2% more than they did. Toomey is likely to get nearly all of the undecideds and still has enough time to peel off Specter loyalists.

Down by 10 against an entrenched inbument with 6 more weeks? Not bad at all. It can be done.

Additionally, your contention that his loss would convince Republicans to run liberal is belied by the presence of Santorum. He's already testament to conservatives being able to win statewide. A Toomey loss would simply illuminate the difficulty of beating incumbents in primaries.

[JohnBDay]

It'll be closer than 10%, Toomey's supporters are more passionate and more likely show up at the polls. Will Arlin Specter win this primary? It's Not Proven.

[NYC GOP Chick]

What would happen if Specter wins in April and goes away for the November election? I have no clue.

Frank Lautenberg is willing to step in at the last minute.

[P.O.E.]

Ping

[smokeyb]

Local news (KDKA) just did a piece showing a poll that the numbers are now 47% - 38% ! They're in the stretch..........

[Dr. Scarpetta]

BUMP

[Bushbacker]

but I must admit yours is the first post I've seen telling people a vote for the most conservative primary candidate would be a wasted one.
Amazing..

____Toomey cannot beat Hoeffel in the general election. Hoeffel will receive a lot of GOP votes---as he always has.

[dfergu7477]

$50--SENT!