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There is also an election underfoot for the House, just to note the obvious, and it's actually far more plausible for the Dems to cut the number of GOP delegations to 25 than it is for them to retake the House.

The GOP currently controls 30 delegations, the Dems 16, 3 are split, and 1 is vacant.

Herseth wins SD (GOP 30)
GOP TX redistricting (GOP 31)
Dems win Tauzin's LA seat (GOP 30)
Dems win either NM-01 or NM-02 (GOP 29)
Dems win GA-11 & GA-12 (GOP 28)
Dems win NV-03 (GOP 27)
Dems win IN-02 & IN-08 (GOP 26)
Dems win CT-02 (GOP 25)

Also, there is no guarantee that congress critters will vote with their delegation. There will be a lot of pressure for them to just deliver their state according to the popular vote, or alternately for them to just deliver their state to the popular vote winner. Depending on how things pan out, there may be a situation of Dems picking off a few delegations and then others deadlocking even despite a GOP majority.

Of course the situation is implausible (I think an EC deadlock pretty much guarantees a Bush 2nd term) but then all these scenarios are unlikely.

I'm going to have to get used to this. I just sent you a private message without meaning to, and then lost the message I was trying to post here. Oh well.

If the RATs picked up enough seats to swing the voting the way you say, they'd win the presidential election going away I think.

You're right that any scenario is unlikely, but it's interesting to guess which state would be the Florida of 2004. Hopefully a state without a supreme court like Florida's.

AntiGuv, the RATs will *not* be able to pick up two seats in IN or Porter's seat in NV. And Phil Gingrey will probably win fairly easily in the 11th CD in GA (although I agree that Max Burns will have a tough reelection in the 12th CD). And we don't know how SD will vote in November (even if Herseth wins the special election in June), and the RATs have yet to beat Wilson in her swing NM CD (while Pearce's CD is safely Republican). And even if all of those things occur, you are forgetting about the fact that Gene Taylor of MS, whose district is the most Republican in the state, said in 2000 that he would vote for Bush if the House had to decide because he would respect the wished of his constituents. So if neither Bush nor Kerry get to 270, I'm fairly certain that around 30 state delegations would vote for Bush. For more on this subject, see http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/f-news/1083413/posts?page=55#55