Electoral College Breakdown, March 7th Update

ECB2004 ^ | 3/6/04 | Dales

[LdSentinal]

Northeast Ohio is bleeding population. Northeast Ohio is a haven for Democrats.

[PGalt]

Very interesting. Thanks for your work.

[america-rules]

WA will be close. The new Bush ads are already airing and there will be good turnout to vote Murry out.

There's alot of people supporting Ft Lewis troops who are in Iraq right now.

But will it be enough ?

[WoofDog123]

"G.W. Bush is also more of a conservative "

Maybe in his public persona, but as far as any legislation, he is a far bigger spender and government expander than his father.

[JLS]

Sure, but G.W. Bush has:

1. Reduced taxes and not gone back and raised them.

2. Supported a defense of marriage ammendment not signed into law the Americans with Disabilities Act. [No matter what you think of it, the Americans with Disabilities Act is government intervention in the market place.]

3. Appointed conservative Judges in the face of blocking in the Senate not appointed Justice Souter to the US Supreme Court. Imagine G.H.W. Bush had to use up political capital to get this captive of the Beltway through the Senate.

The budget and spending is one issue. But there are many otehr ways to be a conservative. G.W. Bush seems pretty conservative to me compared to his centerist father.

[TomEwall]

I mostly agree with this (from intuition) except I think OH and NV are leaning GOP. In particular, I can't see Bush winning the election, nor it being particularly close, if he loses Ohio.

[KQQL]

True, but I think OH is a slight GOP lean to a toss up same with NV @ this time.

[TomEwall]

The following states were extremely close (2%) in 2000:
Florida, Iowa, Minnesota, New Hampshire, New Mexico, Oregon and Wisconsin. Of these Bush only won Florida and New Hampshire. The only one of these states which to my mind seems markedly different than last time is New Hampshire (being a border state for Kerry). Giving this state to Kerry would result in Bush still winning because of the difference in how the electoral college is apportioned by states this time (I think).

The following states were close (2% to 5%): Missouri, Nevada, Ohio, Pennsylvania, Michigan, Tennessee and Washington.

Bush seems to be in good shape if the election is close because last time he won even though he lost 5 of the 7 super close states. Giving away New Hampshire, he still wins. So if Bush wins Florida, he should be in good shape.

That is to say, if Bush wins Florida, he can improve over 2000 by winning any of IA, MN, WI, OR or NM, which were within 1%. Kerry would then probably have to win Ohio, because the other states that were close are already counted in the RAT column, except for Missouri, Nevada and Tennessee. TN is more GOP than last time, because it's not a home state, and MO and NV don't have enough electoral votes to make up for Florida, so Kerry would have to win Ohio. But if Kerry wins Ohio, I don't think the election will be close. So Bush would win if the election were close, provided he won Florida.

I have heard that Florida has become more GOP since 2000, meaning that if Bush were to lose Florida, the election probably wouldn't be close. So the conclusion is that Bush will win the election if it's close.

The underlying assumption behind all this is that things are the same in the states as they were in 2000. I'd be interested in knowing if there has been a move in states, such as what I heard about Florida.

[E.G.C.]

BTTT!!!!!!

[Neets]

A Sunday morning ping in case anyone was left off the list earlier.

IF you want on/off this ping list, please send a "Private Reply"

[Indy Pendance]

We had a lot of voter fraud in Wisconsin in the 2000 election, smokes for votes, Marquette students admitted to voting multiple times, felons voting, etc... We lost President Bush by 5,708 votes, or 0.22%. There has been some interesting things going on here, a Rat was recalled from the Milwaukee county exec position, replaced by a conservative. Feingold barely won his senate seat. Our democrat AG was arrested for drunk driving. The WI House just voted for a constitutional amendment to ban homo marriages, 69-27 (off the top of my head, might be slightly different numbers there) which is headed to the senate. Our rules are, it has to pass twice, so we could be voting on this referendum as early as April 2005. I hope these anecdotes are telling as to how Wisconsin will vote for the President.

[Conservateacher]

Thanks for you efforts!

[Ernest_at_the_Beach]

Thanks for the ping.

Thanks for the fascinating info!

Looks , right now, like a close election unless Bush can get people aroused again about the War on Terror!

[HoustonCurmudgeon]

GHW Bush lost his congressional seat because he was too loberal on race relations

President Bush 41 was in fact liberal on civil rights, for a southern congressman, in the late 60's. However he was in the same position most Republicans were at the time and was in agreement with the Texas 7th district he represented.

He did not run for reelection in 1970, and ran against Lloyd Bentsen for the Senate and lost.

[raloxk]

I thought he was defeated in 1968

[HostileTerritory]

Even my own state of Massachusetts almost voted to abolish the income tax a few years ago, and we're #49 or #50 on the list of states likely to go for the Pubbie in a national election. There's a disconnect between how people vote on state tax increases (always no) and how they'll vote nationally.

[HoustonCurmudgeon]

I thought he was defeated in 1968

No, he first won in 66 and was reelected in 68. Bill Archer took the seat in 70 when Bush ran for Senate. I was 16 in 66 and worked many hours on his campaign and came in to town from UT Austin to help in 68, even appearing on the old Alvin van Black KTRH radio show with the Congressman.

[raloxk]

thanks, that must have been one of the few GOP held seats in TX at that time

[HoustonCurmudgeon]

I believe that we held one in the panhandle and Bush was the second, though we might have had one in Dallas. We held no statewide offices and had Senator Tower, gained in a special election to replace VP LBJ when 7 dims ran and Tower.