Kerry thinks, though, that he can wail gloom and doom long enough about the economy to win in November. Thus far, a small ray of hope for this strategy has been allowed to appear. The White House just hasn't articulated the strengths of the economy very well, and thus the "story line" has always been whether Bush can overcome the "weakness" in the economy. Sometimes the point is put that way. Other times pundits will say that the White House "must" make this election about foreign policy. Either way, argh! That the conventional wisdom has evolved to this point is itself indicative of a failure-- thus far-- of the GOP to be aggressive enough in talking up its economic strategy.
Sound familiar? This was dad's failure in 1992: too much of the country believed a period of growth in GDP and jobs was the worst economic period since the depression!!
Like dad, W will have to contend with rags like the Times carrying water for the Democrats. Nevertheless, if he campaigns competently, he'll be more effective than dad was. The public likes W better, and more importantly we're not faced with a monolithic Democrat media as in 1992.
Luckily, he can put things simply, which will lend itself to effective communication despite a hostile portion of the media. In brief, economic growth is strong, real wages are up, taxes are down, jobs are increasing-- and, in any case, a tax increase will kill job growth! This is hardly the most difficult thing an incumbent has ever had to communicate to an electorate. In any case, the future of the country depends on the White House getting this message out, so they'd better be serious about doing it.
I think the election might be close. Still, if Bush campaigns competently, the economy continues to grow and create jobs, and there are no spectacular foreign policy setbacks, he'll win. He's got the most control over the first element. I don't think it's been a gross error to remain silent for now. Soon, though, it's going to be time to speak on these matters. Let's hope the White House does it right.