Huh? I'll be surprised if Dubya loses NV. He won it in '00, and he's now a proven incumbent. Voter registration has favored the GOP since 2000 as well.
2000: GOP - 366.4K, Dems - 365.6K; +900 GOP
http://http://www.gp.org/documents/vote_reg.html
2004: GOP - 376K, Dems - 368K; +8,000 GOP
http://www.lasvegassun.com/sunbin/stories/lv-gov/2004/jan/22/516219849.html
New voter registration total just came out after Clark County updates the rolls and booted a bunch of people to 'inactive'.
The latest registration figures show Republicans outnumbering Democrats 352,730 to 339,503, the largest margin in years. Nonpartisans numbered 128,039.