[AuH2ORepublican]

Nice job, as usual, but I have one major complaint. NO WAY should Delaware be "Strong for Dems." Delaware moved towards the Dems in the 1990s, as did most suburban areas in the NE, because (i) national security was not deemed to be important anymore because the Cold War ended, (ii) after a decade of tax cuts by Republicans, taxes were low by historical standards and Democrats were running on keeping taxes about the same (and Clinton even promised a middle class tax cut), and (iii) the vacuum created by the absense of these two important issues from the national radar led to voters focusing on social issues such as abortion, guns and the environment, and in Delaware (at least in the heavily populated northern part, which are Philly suburbs) this moved voters to the Democrats. In 2004, national security is again a major issue, with the War on Terror being as prominent as the Cold War once was. John Kerry is promising to roll back the Bush tax cuts and, even more importantly, Bush is wisely framing the issue as "unless Congress makes the tax cuts permanent, your taxes will be raised automatically." And not only have the War on Terror and Kerry's promise to raise taxes made social issues less important in 2004 than they were in 1992, 1996 or 2000, but for once the prevailing social issue---gay marriage---is one where suburban voters in the NE agree with the GOP. So I would make Delaware "slight Democrat" for now, although I have a feeling that it may move into the "toss-up" category during the race.

[Dan from Michigan]

In 2004, national security is again a major issue, with the War on Terror being as prominent as the Cold War once was. John Kerry is promising to roll back the Bush tax cuts and, even more importantly,

True, but I don't think it's enough.

One other major factor in the burbs is simply demographics. Although it's been awhile since I saw the census reports, some of the Philly burbs(Montgomery I think) have a sizable minority population. In Oakland County here, that's a lot of the shift. Southfield is now 56% black. Oak Park is over 50% black and both are growing rapidly with Detroit refugees. A lot of the old Reaganites there are also moving further out west or North.

Add Wilmington to the Delaware Phily burbs, and Bush will need to be perfect to win there.

[Dales]

We'll see. I agree with most of what you wrote (notice my writeup on the background for it) but until I see some evidence that the numbers are going to back up my suspicions, I am taking the prudent step of keeping it as a worst case scenerio.

Once I get all 50 states done, then what I do is once a week update the states which have new polls released. The designations can and will change. I suspect Delaware's is one which will.