On the Spot: Boycott at the Ballot Box in Iran
February 20, 2004
The Times
Ramita Navai
The result of Iran's general election today is a foregone conclusion, but voter turnout will be crucial. Ramita Navai reports from Tehran on the boycott and its effect on the hardline Government.
How high has the turnout been?
Some analysts are saying that it is as low as 20 per cent in central Tehran. It will be higher in rural areas, but we don't have indications yet from outside the capital.
Iran has a good history of turnout – 50 per cent to 60 per cent nationally, so I would say that there is evidence of a boycott, particularly among young people.
At the polling station that I went to in northern Tehran there were few young people. Those that had turned up came only to get a stamp on their ID cards to show that they had voted.
One student preparing to take her university entrance exams was told that if she had a stamp, then the academic authorities would look upon her more favourably – she would be seen as having done her civic duty.
Some of those turning up for stamps, and others just making a stand, have submitted blank ballots. Even reformist candidates who had not been disqualified boycotted the election. It's a big movement.
Is the young vote important?
The voting age is 15, which is really significant because two thirds of the population is under 29 – a huge chunk of the electorate is teenaged, they wield a lot of power.
The young have been very vocal. They've been sending each other text messages and posting messages on websites. There's no talk of who to vote for, the only talk is: "I'm boycotting."
But they don't want to go out on the streets to demonstrate, especially after the student riots of last June. Dozens of people were imprisoned indefinitely.
To them this is a far safer way to protest, not only at the reformist candidates being disqualified, but also to show their total disillusion with President Khatami and his reformist movement.
When they voted Mr Khatami in in 1997 he made inspiring speeches about religious democracy and liberal social and cultural reforms and gained cult status among young people.
After his victory they could suddenly listen to pop music and wear colourful headscarves. But when the conservatives blocked his legislation, the young started to feel disenchanted.
What is the expected result?
All 30 parliamentary seats in 2000 went to reformist candidates. This year they will all be conservatives because most of the reformist candidates have been disqualified. The results will start to come through tomorrow. Who wins is a foregone conclusion: what will be interesting is the turnout and the number of blank or void ballot papers.
Is the Government worried about the boycott?
Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, the Supreme Leader, has blamed the reformist MPs for the boycott in a veiled way. The conservatives are worried about low turnout, as it means that the reformists are likely to be able to question the legitimacy of their Government – if only 30 per cent of the people voted for you, is it legitimate?
Is the boycott likely to affect how they govern?
Nobody seems able to predict how they will react if the result shows a clear boycott. Some analysts say that the conservatives will clamp down on reformists further.
Two nights ago two reformist newspapers were shut down along with an office of the leading reformist opposition party. Others predict that they might grant superficial social reforms as sweeteners to placate the population.
http://www.timesonline.co.uk/article/0,,1-1008808,00.html