I think Toomey has an excellent chance to win the primary. George Bush is running unopposed and Pennsylvania has a large pro-life constituency who will go through hell and high water to vote against Specter.
Specter has shown that he is scared by all the ads he's running on talk radio. I think he is aiming his ads in the wrong place as most talk radio listeners are politically sophisticated and know what a kilt-wearing RINO Specter is.
I think if Toomey wins the primary he will have a very tough time in the general election.
I don't know if Toomey is making any hay regarding immigration. I think he'll be getting behind the scenes support from Bush and I don't think he wants to step on the administration's toes.