SURVEYUSA POLL: U.S. House, KY 6th District Chandler(D) 54% v Kerr (R) 44%

surveyusa.com ^ | 01/27/04 | surveyusa

[KQQL]

U.S. House, KY 6th District 1/27/2004

Chandler (D) 54%

Kerr (R) 44%

Other/Undecided 2%

Data Collected 1/24/04 - 1/26/04

Geography KY 6th Cong. District

Sample Population 572 Certain Voters

Margin of Error 4.2%

[KQQL]

Doesn't look good for KERR !

[KQQL]

http://surveyusa.com/2004_Elections/KY0401276thcongdist.pdf

POLL DETAILS

[GraniteStateConservative]

They better pull it together.

[KQQL]

President Bush and Vice President Cheney will not be coming to Kentucky to help Alice Forgy Kerr's congressional campaign, Kerr said Monday.

Kerr, who is running in a special election Feb. 17, had expected a visit by one or both of the national leaders. But her campaign would have to pay security costs, among other things, and could not afford it, she said.

With no other Republican candidates to share the spotlight and also the expense, "it would be cost prohibitive," Kerr said in an interview while campaigning in Richmond. It would cost "up in the hundreds of thousands of dollars," she said.

Kerr, a state senator from Lexington, is running against Democrat Ben Chandler to complete the term of Gov. Ernie Fletcher, who vacated the 6th District U.S. House seat before his inauguration as governor. Fletcher defeated Chandler, the state's former attorney general.

http://www.wlextv.com/Global/story.asp?S=1617149

[graycamel]

500 voters?! There are 700,000 people in that district. Better call more to get a more accurate picture.

[KQQL]

SURVEYUSA was the 2nd most reliable pollster in 2002.

[JohnnyZ]

I think it'll close more in the three weeks before the election, as Kerr is still becoming known to the peeps. Then it'll be all about turnout.

[LdSentinal]

Doesn't look good for KERR!

A couple of weeks ago it was leaked that Kerr was trailing Chandler by 15% in a Republican poll. She has three weeks to close the gap and she has a lot more money than Chandler. Plus, Bunning, McConnell, and Governor Fletcher will all be campaigning for her.

[KQQL]

Hmmmm, so this poll is good news for her.....

she needs to close 0.5% every day ..or Chandler will win

[stevio]

Could you give us some more information? For those who don't live in Kentucky

[KQQL]

@

[KQQL]

http://kerrforcongress.com/

v

http://www.chandlerforcongress.org/

[JohnnyZ]

US Rep. Ernie Fletcher won the governorship in 2003 over AG Ben Chandler. Fletcher then resigned to assume the governorship, called a special election for his House seat, and Chandler's now running for THAT. Alice Forgy Kerry, a pro-life state senator, was selected to run for the Republicans, but Chandler started off much better known. It's a swing district, favors Republicans slightly.

[GraniteStateConservative]

Oh, it's just one seat. Oh, well. I guess Rove wants to hear McAwful bray about this second straight major win in the South.

[VeritatisSplendor]

You have made a very common mathematical mistake. If your sample of 500 is truly RANDOM, it gets just as good a picture of a 700,000-person Congressional district as of a 70,000-person city or a 7,000,000-person state.

It is true that you sometimes have to do more work to ensure randomness if you are polling a larger area, but you don't need a larger sample.

[AuH2ORepublican]

"I think it'll close more in the three weeks before the election, as Kerr is still becoming known to the peeps. Then it'll be all about turnout."

---

You're right, of course. But this poll still doesn't make sense, since it only lists 2% as undecided. Given Kerr's low name recognition, there is NO WAY that 98% of "certain voters" (whatever that means---and by the way, couldn't they be tossing out Republicans who aren't 100% sure they'll be voting because they don't know who Kerr is yet?) already made up their minds.

[JohnnyZ]

Yeah, that was weird. The 2%. Might be how they asked the question, including leaners or something. Maybe it the MOE thing.

You know, I came close to interning with Zog at one point, but the Poli Sci professor in charge of recruiting students was a real piss-ant who favored sociology folks over mathematicians. Maybe he sensed the "I hate you" vibes coming from me, I dunno.

[KQQL]

Alice Forgy Kerr is a strong GOP candidate in a Republican-leaning district.

In 2000, President Bush carried the Sixth District with 55.5 percent of the vote.

Ernie Fletcher also won the district during his recent gubernatorial race by 55.6 percent of the vote.

And, in previous congressional elections Fletcher consistently won the seat by solid margins garnering 53 percent in 1998, 53 percent again in 2000
http://nrcc.org/cgi-data/news/files/103.shtml

KY6 is a swing District.................slightly leaning Republican