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To: KylaStarr
Good job on tracking that down!! One could say that Air France fly's by the seat of their pants during these dangerous times putting everyone at risk in that plane.
6,324 posted on 02/04/2004 4:51:31 PM PST by WestCoastGal ("Hire paranoids, they may have a high false alarm rate, but they discover all the plots" Rumsfeld)
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To: All
Snipped........



The strategic dilemmas of Bush and Bin Laden
by John Thompson


In the coming weeks, we will all know if the "Cave of Darkness" threat was made good in a massive incident in the U.S., and a series of accompanying small operations elsewhere. It may be that heightened security deterred the operation and it may be attempted later, or might even emerge that al Qaeda was simply bluffing.

Regardless, as the fourth year of the American War on Terrorism begins, and as al Qaeda enters its second decade of its ‘war’ on the Western world, 2004 will be a pivotal year for both President Bush and Osama Bin Laden.

While the threat posed by al Qaeda is real enough, this is an election year and George Bush’s administration faces the trial by electorate that all American politicians must face. Does he still have the confidence of the American people? We will know in November. Although the initial signs look positive, 10 months is time enough for disasters and triumphs alike to be conceived and brought to term.

A change in government can always lead to a major change in the priority, or the very policy, of the war on terrorism and--if the year goes by without a 9-11 sized incident (or worse)--then Bush will face the dreadful equation that all authorities do in countering terrorism: Success = complacency = vulnerability.


Lurking in his hideaway (wherever it actually is), Bin Laden has a similar problem. Every attempt to launch a major outrage inside the Western World since 9-11 has failed; usually because of the arrest of key personnel or because of heightened security in Western Europe and North America. They have launched some very significant attacks (notably in Bali and Kenya), his tens of millions of admirers and supporters in the Arab World are starting to ask "Where’s the grief? 911 was very fine, but what have you done to the Crusaders and Jews lately?"

If Al Qaeda is to keep its place, they need to score another enormous success. Otherwise, they might dwindle into a more ordinary terrorist network and see some of the 60 component groups in their alliance branch off on their own.

Bin Laden, no more than Bush, can't afford failure either. One of the reasons why al Qaeda’s attack profile is so muted is that a spectacular error (like the arrest of all its agents before an assault begins) would strip away too much of the aura of infallibility and mystery that their prestige rests on. A more aggressive attitude--attempting more actions in the West and giving more autonomy to their component cells--might succeed, but might also give more intelligence (and targets) for Western counteractions.


http://www.torontofreepress.com/terrorreport.htm
6,330 posted on 02/04/2004 5:55:21 PM PST by WestCoastGal ("Hire paranoids, they may have a high false alarm rate, but they discover all the plots" Rumsfeld)
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