Warning For Early February
Compiled By: Ryan Mauro, with input by HomelandSecurityUS.com
tdcanalyst@optonline.net From speaking with fellow analysts at the Northeast Intelligence Network (HomelandSecurityUS.com), WorldThreats.com feels it is essential to issue a special warning about the time period between now and mid-February. On the positive side, we continue to see a series of captures of key Taliban and Al-Qaeda figures, coming from the top-down indicating there was some big catch that is giving away their locations, either by interrogation or from documents found. As earlier noted, it is possible this is Osama Bin Laden or Ayman Al-Zawahiri, but it is definitely someone big. Hopefully, this will result in a foiling of operations aimed against us.
Despite the lowering of the orange alert, generally the high level of “chatter” has not subsided, and major cities and potential attack sites remain on orange alert, despite the national level being at “elevated”. On January 27th, analyst Sean Osbourne Lamax reported that lots of jihad-related emails talked of mass confusion over the next day, and not surprisingly, this is when one of the worst computer viruses (infecting one of every twelve emails already) hit the news. It is clearly the work of hackers, and we know terrorists have used such tactics in the past. It is still the opinion of many analysts that the blackouts of last year were the result of some sort of sabotage or cyber terrorism. For that reason, terrorism cannot be ruled out on this virus, as it is certainly deliberate. It all depends on who is behind it. Unfortunately there is no way to determine that as of yet.
Intelligence indicates preparations for an attack on Saudi Arabia and the United States at around the same time. The chatter indicates that initial attacks are to pave the wave for civil war in Saudi Arabia against the royal family. On February 1, 2004, Muslim pilgrims will arrive at Mina (for the Haj pilgrimage), and it symbolizes the stoning of the devils. Wahhabist and other radical clerics have issued fatwa’s granting it justified for pilgrims to bring weapons to the holiday. This is also during the Festival of the Sacrifice (Eid al-Adha). Osama Bin Laden also talked of delivering the greatest blows yet by the end of the year, which according to the Muslim calendar, ends on February 21st. These days of extreme religious importance are the most likely times for the uprising against Saudi Arabia, to be timed with attacks on America. This coming weekend is also Super Bowl weekend, and images of nuclear explosions near stadiums have been intercepted, as well as pictures of nuclear explosions over New York City, and other suspicious images—all with Osama Bin Laden in the background. Al-Qaeda spokesmen have promised attacks before mid-February, giving a rare timetable.
Our intelligence gathering also leaves us certain that Al-Qaeda intends to somehow alert the major media outlets of an impending attack before it occurs, so as to gain maximum exposure. One more point, even if the Super Bowl isn’t the target, the objective of terrorists is to cause economic disruption and fear, so an attack on the same day or around the same time will achieve a similar effect as if attacking the event directly. We cannot say with certainty what the targets are as we’re simply lining up the timing of the attacks.
On January 27th, in the words of one intelligence analyst, “all substantive chatter has ceased. There is nothing period. The last thing we heard were references to Osama Bin Laden as Osama Abdullah. Osama is going to be announced as the long-awaited Islamic al-Mahdi. The Wahhabists are into their apocalyptic scenario full-scale.” It is commonly understood that high levels of chatter indicate final preparations for attacks, and the sudden silence indicates the attacks are in motion.
There is also the question of state sponsorship. If Iran has a role in the attacks, or is simply letting them occur, there must be a reason. Such reasons could be to cause revolution in the Middle East, so that the US is too preoccupied with the situation in Afghanistan and Iraq to take any action against Iran, and to cause oil prices to go sky high, so we are economically damaged (and unable to threaten Iran or its ally, Syria). At this point, the failure of the American overseas efforts is critical to the survival of the Iranian regime. Also, it may not be far-fetched to say that enemy states would like to see maximum political effect of their attacks. Any major attack will have maximum political consequences, rendering the US unable to respond due to popular opinion and election concerns. We have little doubt that enemies like Iran or even Bin Laden would love to see Bush lose the next election, as it is unlikely someone more than or equally as aggressive as he will take power. The transition to a new president also buys time, as the new leader will likely be reluctant to respond.
Amir Taheri wrote in The New York Post on January 26, 2004 that while Iranian president Khatami was denouncing terror, “militants from some 40 countries spread across the globe were trekking to Tehran for a 10-day "revolutionary jamboree" in which "a new strategy to confront the American Great Satan" will be hammered out.
The event starts Feb. 1, to mark the 25th anniversary of the return to Iran from exile of the late Ayatollah Ruhallah Khomeini, the founder of the "Islamic Revolution." It is not clear how many militants will attend, but Iran's official media promise a massive turnout to underline the Islamic Republic's position as the "throbbing heart of world resistance to American arrogance." The 17 branches of Hezbollah, as well as Ansar al-Islam (part of Al-Qaeda), Hizb Islami (part of Al-Qaeda), Latin American terrorists, Irish terrorists, all the Palestinian groups, Basque and Corsican terrorists, and a wide range of many different types of terrorists are attending the conference. One can only speculate as to what this meeting is about, and what it will bring about.
>> On January 27th, in the words of one intelligence analyst, all substantive chatter has ceased. <<
This is a little worrisome.
Good grief. SOunds like a huge meeting. This is not good.
Also, if I recall correctly, right after and extending up until last year, alot of ME types were caught filming buildings in Houston, powerplants, government 'installations' and Bush International.