I'm not putting any of that forward with a lot of confidence, so I'm not sure I can take credit for being "right" about it.
The only point I was making was that if something a little unusual happens - especially on the net - but isn't obviously sinister, the more likely answer is to "think horses, not zebras." Silence is difficult to assess - more often than not the reason is technical difficulties. That's especially true on the forums - there's no particular reason for them to go silent since there's always going to be more than enough wannabes to keep the forum going; but technical difficulties of some kind can prevent access or updates for innocent reasons.