Fingers crossed, Tex.
I still remember the nail biting finish to the last election. Have we gained or lost core support, since then? Out here, a politician can be dismissive of his core constituency and get away with it, because we have compulsory voting. In the US it's not so easy, especially if a last minute scandal were to blow up just before the election. Stateside, one needs to factor in a margin of safety, to allow for the Dems' vote-rigging and dirty tricks. Cheers, By
As to your point, the GOP has been forced to expand the “base” beyond the traditional red meat conservatives precisely because of that contingent’s historic penchant for staying at home or voting 3rd party in every presidential election since 1992. It would be irresponsible for the GOP to continue to try to lure them back into the fold when doing that would lose more center right and independent votes than it would gain. Just like all extremists the extreme right always overplays its hand. The Democrats are now where the GOP was in 1992, they have let their far left “base” become the driving force behind their policies and it is diving a lot of democrats into the “independent” column.