I believe the Confederacy as it existed prior to Lincoln's provoking the secession of the Upper South by resisting the secession of the Lower South occupied nothing close to 40% of the territory of the U.S. As a matter of fact, I suspect the Lower South, by itself, could not have made a go of it, and would eventually have sued for readmittance to the Union. Without a war. When the Upper South refused to secede, Lincoln won a great victory, which he then proceeded to throw away. All of this is not just my opinion. Seward thought the same at the time.
Whatever. If it was only 2%, would that be ok to just forget about?
As a matter of fact, I suspect the Lower South, by itself, could not have made a go of it, and would eventually have sued for re admittance to the Union. Without a war. When the Upper South refused to secede, Lincoln won a great victory, which he then proceeded to throw away.
He threw it away when Davis fired on Sumter? As you said, the lower south itself was a very economically and politically shaky confederation. Davis is the guy who needed a war to move the upper south to his side. Should Lincoln's response have been to back down from the illegitimate regime in the lower south, by abandoning its soldiers, surrendering property and turning its cheek when the flag was fired upon?
Is that what you would do as President today?
What was and is the government's moral, legal and Constitutional duty when faced with open insurrection?
If you believe this to be true, then you must think that the reasons for their rebellion were insignificant in the first place.