[JohnnyZ]

Clark has to be up 10 points in these states just to be tied with Dean after he gets these big wins in January.

Of course if some of the other folks are knocked out, Clark may pick up their non-Dean or anti-Dean votes, which could offset that.

I think in some places, like South Carolina, Dean can only reach a certain ceiling, beyond which it'll be all anti-Dean (at least with white voters).

[GmbyMan]

**I think in some places, like South Carolina, Dean can only reach a certain ceiling, beyond which it'll be all anti-Dean (at least with white voters).**


The problem with your theory in South Carolina is that Clark will split the "anti-Dean" vote with John Edwards. I think a Dean win in Iowa almost assures him the nomination and a probable win even in some of the southern states.