Posted on 01/08/2004 11:38:30 AM PST by Cincinatus' Wife
PASADENA, Calif. -- The landing of Spirit on Mars has rekindled speculation that U.S. President George Bush is on the verge of putting NASA on a new space policy trajectory, one that could lead to a human expedition to the red planet.
By far the most persistent conjecture is that the Bush Administration has green-lighted a human return to the Moon as a stepping stone to planting footprints on the distant dunes of Mars.
Officials here at NASA's Jet Propulsion Laboratory (JPL) think the possibility of a humans-to-Mars mission has been fortified by placing Spirit down safely onto Mars. But what is now needed is clarity about future objectives, the necessary funds to carry them out, and a matching of science needs with key data that permits safe landing and return of a future expeditionary Mars crew, experts say.
The White House has given no firm indication that any major space policy change is in the works.
But insider talk is that the White House is ready to re-energize NASA, perhaps stating so in the upcoming State of the Union address to the Nation. If not during this talk, there is gossip that the one-year anniversary of the tragic loss of the shuttle Columbia crew last February 1 may be the occasion to articulate a bold, visionary space agenda.
Meanwhile, astronauts, space policy experts, politicians, historians, and others continue to second-guess how best to revitalize NASA.
Lunar volunteer
Last month, rumors of a fresh Presidential decree about space centered on the 100th anniversary of the Wright Brothers flight celebrations at Kill Devil Hills, North Carolina. No pronouncement was made.
Even actor John Travolta tried to pry out of President Bush some hint of a new NASA direction at the Wright Brothers festivities.
"So Mr. President, the newspapers say that you and your staff are considering a number of ambitious initiatives for the next several years, including perhaps a permanent return to the Moon. I’d like to state now, for the record, not only do I vote for that idea, but I volunteer to go on the first mission," Travolta said.
The response by Bush to the entertainer’s prod was less than fact-filled.
"To John Travolta…we shall call him ‘Moon Man’ from now on," the President quipped.
In his 13-minute Kitty Hawk speech, Bush offered not a clue as to where he’d like NASA to venture in the future, except to say that "flight will advance in ways that none of us can imagine as we stand here today."
That’s the spirit
There is no doubt that the successful touchdown of Spirit on Mars has not only bolstered morale inside NASA, but shored up a weakened "can do" spirit in the business of robotic and human exploration of the solar system.
Visiting JPL the night that Spirit achieved its Mars landing at Gusev Crater was John Marburger, Science Advisor to President Bush.
Marburger said the President is interested in indicators of how well NASA can deliver. "This is going to give everybody a big boost. It gives a big boost to the American people," he said.
"Obviously, this helps a lot to instill confidence in any policy step that you make," Marburger told SPACE.com.
The White House Science Advisor said he was impressed by those that were able to calculate the steps necessary to land safely in a very intricate maneuver.
"So that’s an indication that what we know about the martian environment is right. It probably indicates that the failures are not some goblins on Mars but the result of perhaps not investing sufficient in testing, or analysis, or the kinds of things that you need to do to succeed in a complicated engineering mission," Marburger noted.
"I think it’s a confidence-inspiring measure. It’s a good sign for the future of the space program," Marburger said.
Shorter-term issues
While the space community waits to hear what President Bush proposes for the future, it is useful to realize just how difficult his choice has been.
That’s the view of John Logsdon, Director of the Space Policy Institute in the Elliott School of International Affairs at George Washington University, Washington, D.C.
Space policy has been forced to a high priority issue by the Columbia tragedy, Logsdon told SPACE.com. "Before he can think about the more distant future, the President has had to decide what to do about shorter term issues."
Logsdon said the two key issues now facing the President are how best to finish the International Space Station and how long to fly the space shuttle.
"Funds spent on answering those two questions are funds not available for investing in going beyond Earth orbit. It is more important that the President lay out a roadmap that will shape the transition from these current programs towards a productive and exciting future than it is to specify a particular destination to be reached on a defined schedule," Logsdon explained.
"There is an opportunity to set the direction of human spaceflight for at least the next quarter century, the space policy expert said. "Let's hope that what the President proposes deserves the nation's support."
Top priorities
Congressman Sherwood Boehlert, Science Committee Chairman of the U.S. House of Representatives, was quick to salute NASA and those operating Spirit here at JPL, as well as offer advice.
"Like many Americans, I have been transfixed by the pictures and eagerly await three months of awe-inspiring exploration. This is truly an auspicious start to the New Year and an exciting first step in the next era at NASA," Boehlert said in a press statement.
"The successful landing was no accident. In the wake of previous failures, NASA's space science program and JPL thoroughly reviewed their procedures and changed their ways of doing business. NASA is now reaping the fruits of those efforts, which were no doubt traumatic at the time. All of NASA should see that experience as a model," the lawmaker stated.
"The Mars mission also demonstrates the continuing value of NASA's science missions, which can provide enormous scientific benefits at a relatively low cost. I continue to believe that space science and earth science should be the agency's top priorities."
Detour at the Moon
Howard McCurdy, Chair of the Department of Public Administration at American University in Washington, D.C., agrees with an observation of the Columbia Accident Investigation Board. "Any major human space flight program that attempts to be ‘all things to all people’ is unlikely to accomplish any of its objectives," McCurdy remarked.
This is as true for the space station as it is for the space shuttle, McCurdy said.
"Since we have had three decades of drift in the human space flight program, perhaps it is time to try thirty years with a focus. I am in favor of a return to the Moon as a testing ground for an expedition to Mars -- because the former is only three days away. When we are confident that we can send humans on an expedition up to three years without Earth re-supply, then we will be ready to go to Mars," McCurdy said.
But revisiting the Moon with humans could turn into a roadblock, warned Louis Friedman, Executive Director of The Planetary Society, a public space advocacy group. "If it’s going to be another space station type program with permanent presence on the surface of the Moon…that bogs us down and prevents us from getting to Mars," he said.
On the other hand, detouring to the Moon to enable a Bush space policy that is aimed at humans on Mars is worthy of support, Friedman added.
Asked recently to voice his view on where next for NASA, astronaut Mike Foale -- now a resident onboard the International Space Station -- offered the analogy of mountain climbing. "You have to form a base camp, where you have to put all your resources there. Then you work from that base camp further out to get to the peak. I think of International Space Station like the base camp to go to the Moon," he said.
"I think the Moon should be a great base camp to go onto Mars," Foale said.
Creeping complacency
Former shuttle astronaut Thomas Jones said Executive leadership and firm Congressional support for a more aggressive space program are long overdue.
As a new astronaut in 1990, Jones said he thought that certainly the United States would be back on the Moon or on the way to Mars by the turn of the century.
"That NASA has been forced to ‘mark time’ for more than ten years no doubt contributed to the creeping complacency that contributed to Columbia's loss," Jones said.
"Fortunately, we are still an exploring nation, and it's never too late to take bold steps outward." Jones said. "The nation's leadership should challenge NASA and indeed the rest of the government to once again stake out an energizing, difficult, and long-term goal in space exploration."
Recommit to exploration
As for what that vision should entail, Jones has some suggestions. The destination -- asteroids, the Moon, or Mars -- is less important than the reasons why we recommit to exploration, he advises.
Jones said that the country’s new space goal and America’s new destination should be:
Understandable - The "why" of any space goal should be clear to both the taxpayer and the politician;
Achievable - A roadmap with incremental milestones should show progression to greater capability and eventual success;
Affordable - Make use of existing technology to achieve early progress; build momentum with small successes;
Valuable - The new goal should be of clear, measurable value to the nation, spinning off benefits even as we strive to reach it.
Jones said his rationale is straightforward: "Explore to remain the world leader in technology, harness energy in space to power our society on Earth, and protect the planet from cosmic catastrophe.
As a veteran space traveler, Jones has his own choice of destination. "Explore the nearby asteroids, learn how to prevent their ever hitting Earth, capitalize on their resources, and then turn those space vehicles toward Mars."
Rallying public support
Michael Smith, a Purdue University professor of history, contends that there couldn't be a better time to rejuvenate the country's interest in space travel. He is writing a book about the space race between America and the former Soviet Union.
"John F. Kennedy's inspiring calls in the early 1960s for the United States to reach the Moon during the space race with the Soviets were crucial in developing and financing the successful Apollo programs," Smith said.
President Bush's father, George H. Bush, similarly attempted to rally American public support for further colonization of the Moon, Mars and space in 1989 at the end of the Cold War.
But Bush senior’s initiative failed, Smith recalled. "Times have changed, though, and our current President Bush may very well be able to mobilize public support for some bold space exploration initiatives in the context of the world's present challenging political and military realities, namely the global war on terrorism and projects to transform the technologies and strategies of the U.S. military. Assets in outer space and cyberspace are crucial to both."
Capture the attention
American space travel, Smith said, has been at a standstill following the space shuttle Columbia loss nearly a year ago. Meanwhile, China is starting its own space program, he pointed out.
"Military necessities dictated by the nuclear arms race defined so many of Russia's and America's achievements in the first space age of the late 20th Century," Smith said. "But that does not mean the coming space age of the 21st Century will take on the same character and sequence. Recent partnerships between the United States and Russia on Mir and the International Space Station prove that peaceful collaboration can work."
The President's possible impending announcement for a return to the Moon may stir feelings of nostalgia, but Smith suggests that more will be needed to capture the attention of the younger generations.
"The Apollo missions have a historic and nostalgic allure only," Smith said. "We have the spectacular photographs and films and memories in popular culture. University students show little interest in returning to the Moon again simply to return. Colonizing and mining the moon interest them somewhat. Reaching and exploring and colonizing Mars, perfectly achievable, according to present and possible technologies, fascinates them most."
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This is a very real problem, couple that with fear of failure and it's evident there is no time to waste getting back in the saddle again.
Timing is based on need. Bush would probably never have run for President on his own, and even now wouldn't run for a second term if the same people who asked him the first time didn't ask him to run again. If he is meeting their needs, they will ask again. If giving NASA a clearer goal meets the needs of the country now, he will do that now.
Because most people don't understand the "why" of going. Think national security (comcats - commercial and military). Add to that a need for more math and science graduates, a push for new technology that always helps our economy, and you have a national goal that pays back as well as inspires.
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