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To: Future Snake Eater
However, I fully believe that lack of vision will keep us grounded on Terra Firma for a long, long time to come.

Well, perhaps, but don't judge from the reactions that you read on those threads that you reference. There will always be a reactionary, Luddite crowd here on FR, whining about the government doing anything -- they are not now, nor have they ever, been a substantive voice in American politics.

However, you are correct in identifying the fundamental problem -- the "lack of vision." The basic reason we have a mediocre space program is that we have no national leadership on it. This is not new -- this has been the fundamental problem for the last 30 years. After Apollo, there was no longer a perceived political need for the space program. Hence, thirty years of neglect, leading to thirty years of space mediocrity.

The problem with manned Mars missions is not the technical difficulty (although I am less sanguine than you are regarding their feasibility -- there are several things we cannot yet do at reasonably low risk levels); it's the lack of a compelling political rationale. With no Cold War and no motivation to "race" anybody to Mars, there's simply no political reason to go there. Hence, small-scale, robotic missions, of limited capability and limited return, as far as the eye can see.

The basic difference with a manned moon mission is that there is a commodity there with value beyond science or exploration (although we get that with a lunar return as well) -- the resources of the moon. The water/hydrogen at the lunar poles can allow us to access Earth-moon space routinely. Thus, a lunar return creates space-faring infrastructure (as opposed to a "one-off" Mars mission system of hardware), a space transport system that can access other places in Earth-moon space, including those involving national security (our strategic assets in orbit) and the national economic infrastructure (commercial satellites of various kinds).

Mars offers none of this -- it is basically a scientific/exploratory expedition. That's fine, but what's the political motivation for policy makers to commit to it? In contrast, they may well commit to a program that promotes important national interests (e.g., project American power in space and create new wealth by expanding access to commercial assets in Earth orbit). A return to the moon to mine water can do all this -- and create the infrastructure to go to the planets later.

51 posted on 01/05/2004 3:00:02 PM PST by Cincinatus (Omnia relinquit servare Republicam)
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To: Cincinatus
Mars offers none of this

That's true. Mars offers no economic benefit in itself. However, it is a high-visibility target, and--this might be important--it is possible to found a settlement on Mars. The first Mars settlers will probably not be groups of gov't scientists, but religious utopias. Just a thought.

52 posted on 01/05/2004 3:03:45 PM PST by RightWhale (Repeal the Law of the Excluded Middle)
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To: Cincinatus
...there are several things we cannot yet do at reasonably low risk levels...

Right, merely flying there being one of the riskiest. The radiation experienced by the Apollo astronauts was manageable; the radiation experienced by interplanetary astronauts over a space of several years is quite another thing. I have seen suggestions involving developing an artificial Van Allen belt around the spacecraft but this isn't a developed technology yet.

It isn't an insuperable engineering problem, but it's a significant one. The best place to study this sort of thing would be a moonbase, IMHO, which I would love to see set up on the same basis that Spacelab (remember Spacelab?) was decades ago. From there we can launch 'em.

54 posted on 01/05/2004 3:17:16 PM PST by Billthedrill
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To: Cincinatus
There's the rub--political motivation. The only time we're going to see that kind of motivation is if Red Chinese cosmonauts (or whatever the hell they're called) pick up the flag planted by Armstrong and rip it to shreds on worldwide TV. Short of that, I can't foresee any true "political" drive to move beyond what you adequately termed "space mediocrity." That's why we just need a leader or two to come out and say, "Mr. and Mrs. John Q. American, this is what we're going to do and this is how we're going to do it. Not for strategic gain, not for immediate profit, but because it's there!" Now, I'm not a politician and maybe that would go over like a lead zeppelin with the "Me First!" crowds, but, at least it may actually light a fire in some souls and imaginations and get this country back on track with the pioneering spirit that's driven it for over 200 years.

Plus, I'm a real big thinker, and I'm thinking about not only colonizing Mars but terraforming it as well. Now, I know that technology is still well beyond our reach, but it is very much possible. I read an absolutely fascinating article about that possibility in Life many years ago, and the concept of Martian terraforming has fascinated me ever since. I think too many people envision any and all exploration/colonization in space as a spacesuit-only affair, but if you show them the BIG picture (i.e. starting up an actual second Earth), and actually strive to meet that goal (meaning actual research put toward practical application) then maybe, just maybe, more people will jump on board.

60 posted on 01/05/2004 6:27:53 PM PST by Future Snake Eater ("Oh boy, I can't wait to eat that monkey!"--Abe Simpson)
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