Nothing elaborate, but something definite with him speaking and discussing something current (say post Jan 2002). I think the last video put out (like 2 months ago) with him and his #2 guy Al Zaywairi (spelling I know). In that video that was said to be "current" it only showed Bin Laden and his #2 walking with no audio. This was a big red flag.
Because if they went through all the trouble and operational security to finally put out a video "proving" himself alive....they would have surly had him talk...yet, it was voiced over. Proving that it wasn't "current" because they didn't want the actual audio of the video to be heard.
But we do know that by releasing that video, that Bin Laden (or more likely it is seeming Al Qeada posing as Bin Laden) did want to get the video out to try and "prove" Bin Ladne is alive. So then this gets one thinking, if Bin Laden really wanted to prove he was alive, and went through the trouble of making a video, he would have surly put his voice on it, showing himself talking. But this wasn't done.
Now, I also like Monsoor (from Fox News)...he does seem to know what he is talking about, but I also believe he has to put out (false or half truth) information every so often...just in order to keep his sources "clean"...if he was always putting out concrete intel....this would be a tip off to those above his "sources"...So I believe he puts out false or half truth info every so often....His thoughts on Bin Laden being some of that....Just a gut feeling there. Obvioulsy I could be wrong on that.
Conclusion, If I had to take a percentage on it. 75% Bin Laden has been dead since Nov / Dec 2001.
If he is not dead, I'd say we get him before Sept of this year.