The Republicans may lose a few house and senate deats, but Bush will be re-elected. Not so much because of his policies, but because the Democrats will not run anyone against him that has a genuine chance of winning. The same way the Republicans ran Dole against clinton when Dole was possibly the only candidate that couldn't beat him. I think, maybe, they are repaying a favor. Besides, why would they want to defeat the Republicans? The pubbies are getting all kinds of stuff through without opposition that the Democrats want (even though they may pretend they don't) and that would be soundly defeated if they were the ones trying it.
I am now as concerned as you are by Bush's "CINO" qualties. I feel "triangulated." THe Campaign Finance Reform still has me reeling. I could almost buy the Medicaid business as an enevitability, but CFR is a shocker. I expect the second amendment to come down this year. Sooner or later the Dems will get back into power and brother look out.
I am deeply fearful.