But has anyone made a non-predictive model? A model that accounts for all effects predictable or not -- vocanoes, solar etc.
No such model can exist, as much of the process involved is not sufficiently understood. Additionally, there is insufficient historical data from which to construct an accurate beginning state vector or track of historical responses against which to test a model.
All that can be done in that area is to apply the current models in use with such information as is available in the historical record.
One such recent study states:
Do Models Underestimate the Solar Contribution to Recent Climate Change?
Abstract:
"It is found that current climate models underestimate the observed climate response to solar forcing over the twentieth century as a whole, indicating that the climate system has a greater sensitivity to solar forcing than do models. The results from this research show that increases in solar irradiance are likely to have had a greater influence on global-mean temperatures in the first half of the twentieth century than the combined effects of changes in anthropogenic forcings. Nevertheless the results confirm previous analyses showing that greenhouse gas increases explain most of the global warming observed in the second half of the twentieth century.
This along with the CERN workshop statement:
Conclusions of the Workshop on Ion--Aerosol--Cloud Interactions,
CERN, 18--20 April 2001
A.W. Wolfendalehttp://doc.cern.ch/yellowrep/2001/2001-007/p249.pdf
In the case of the current global warming, there is increasing agreement that the climate model fits to the temperature record need to amplify the solar contribution by about a factor 3. The presently-assumed solar contribution is only from the (Lean et al., 1995) direct irradiance changes. An additional, indirect, solar contribution could either decrease or increase the projections of the anthropogenic effects.
Makes a pretty clear case that the current models are viewed as lacking in their treatment of solar related forcings.