China Warns U.S.: War or Peace

Newsmax ^ | Thursday, Dec. 4, 2003 | Charles R. Smith

[Gunslingr3]

In 1998 or maybe it was 1999 China threatened to nuke Los Angeles if we came to Tawains aid. "At the end of the day America cares more about Los Angels than Taiwan" was what was said in para-phrase

Well, do you?

[knak]

One of these days....

[HELLRAISER II]

Yes & no, i don't think that they would hit us prior to a conflict with N.K. but if & when we bust their chops then China may very well hit us. There are plans on the table, anyone with enough gray matter can see enough between the lines to understand that China has every intention of hitting us. But first they'll bleed us dry at the retail stores, then all bet's are off.

[longtermmemmory]

One China? That was bill clinton and his white towerists. GWBush said if China invades taiwan the USA will defend.

Seems like China is trying to help the Clinton election efforts.

[Filibuster_60]

In fact China is in 10th place behind the Netherlands, Italy, and Canada.

They're actually in 4th place now, having just leapfrogged Britain & France. In fact they're closing fast on Japan. What you say was true 5 years ago.

[cynicom]

Go back a few years. Kruschev in a joking manner told Mao that he could wipe out China in a matter of minutes. Mao replied, you may kill 500 million of us but the other billionwill be coming for you. Nikita got the message.

[HELLRAISER II]

I don't know if Africa has anything to do with it, but anyone paying attention in World Wide affairs can see the obvious hatred for the U.S. in our enemies as well as several of our supposed allies. Even Austrailia and the U.K. have a large population of anti-American citizens. For that matter, we have alot of Domestic anti-American citizens right here in the states.

[GrandMoM]

But first they'll bleed us dry at the retail stores, then all bet's are off.

WALMART!....among many others.

[Filibuster_60]

The economic dependency increasingly runs both ways. China's now the second-biggest buyer of US government debt, so in a sense, they're financing our war on terror even as they help our enemies. And much of our retail economy depends on access to cheap Chinese imports.

[Wombat101]

Yeah, it would really suck if we couldn't buy rubber Godzillas or those trashy icicle lights at Wal-Mart...Next thing you know, we might have to depend on Indonesia or the Phillipines to provide American business with virtual slave labor...

[kabar]

They're actually in 4th place now, having just leapfrogged Britain & France. In fact they're closing fast on Japan. What you say was true 5 years ago.

I am using the Economist's "World in Figiures" pocket edition 2003. The figures include visible and invisible amounts. For "visible" traders, China is 9th. In compiling the data, the Economist was using the latest data available as of December 31, 2000. What is China's percentage of world trade now and what is our's according to your information?

[american spirit]

You can dream all you want amigo but thanks to Clinton and his band of free "traitors" China acquired significant amounts of US technology that fast forwarded their military capabilities significantly. Anyone who believes their motives will not pose a threat to our peace and security someday is a fool......respectfully.

[Filibuster_60]

Good point. The increasing boldness of rivals like China has something to do with our ever-declining popularity in nominally allied nations in both Europe and Asia. China's seized the initiative in Southeast Asia, offering an agenda of economic cooperation while Bush can't talk much beyond fighting terror. Asians (and many Europeans) despise Bush's visits to their countries with an army of heavily-armed security guards, not bothering to mix with the locals and treating their hosts as little more than lieutenants in fighting terror.

China's new leadership has won the Asian popularity contest against the US, hands-down. They're confident that the world is on their side when it comes to Taiwan. Anyone who says there's no downside to the world's rising anti-Americanism is daydreaming.

[onedoug]

Clintonism.

[HELLRAISER II]

It amazes me that our fellow country-man (even though they're DemocRats) can't see that we're in the cross hairs.

[Filibuster_60]

Things change quickly. China's $800 billion trade this year compares to just $500 billion in 2000. No other country's commercial activity is increasing at such a pace. Exports will exceed $400 billion this year, which isn't far behind Japan. China's imports are growing even faster than exports and on this basis it's probable they'll leapfrog Japan rather soon, maybe within just 5 years. Only US & Germany will be higher on the list.

[kabar]

The US is China's biggest export destination accounting for over 20% of the value of its total exports. Hong Kong and Japan are next. The U.S.'s biggest export destination is Canada(22.9%). China is way down the list in terms of being an export destination or buyer of US goods and services.

In terms of imports, China is the 4th largest source (8.2%) behind Canada (19%), Japan (12%), and Mexico (11.2%). If push came to shove in terms of cheap imports, I believe Indonesia, Malaysia, South Korea, South America, etc. could furnish us with the same goods just as cheaply should we get into a trade war with China. We would have to shift our investments to those countries. China remains much more dependent on US trade than vice-versa.

[kabar]

Projecting such trend lines well into the future is a mistake. When you have a huge economy such as ours, you will have smaller rates of increase, which makes the 8.2% rate for the last quarter so impressive. With an economy of about one-ninth of the US, China can have growth rates of 7%, but they will not be able to sustain them.

The same crowd that predicts the coming dominance of China in the world economy, was also the one in the nineties that projected a Japanese century. China's corrupt and antiquated banking system, its political system, and other factors do not bode well for the Chinese economy. Mark my words.

[Filibuster_60]

China is set to overtake Mexico as the second-largest source of imports this year, if I'm not mistaken.

Sure, China'll get hit much badly in a trade war. At the current pace, however, the potential damage to our own economy in the short term will also be massive in the years ahead, particularly to the stock market which has up to $1 trillion of market cap dependent on cheap Chinese imports. Walmart for instance can't exist in its present form without China, and alone accounts for a huge swathe of the retail sector.

China's not the only source of cheap goods, but it has a definite competitive advantage over other third-world nations in overall terms. Land, water & electricity are dirt-cheap. Productive organization is effective and disciplined. Labor troubles are rare. Infrastructure is spanking new in many places. Cheap labor alone wouldn't explain the mass exodus of manufacturing facilities to China from other nations. Indonesia & Malaysia don't have their Shanghai's or Pearl River Deltas & they can't pop out of the ground overnight.

[Filibuster_60]

Their growth obviously isn't sustainable at the current pace. Someday they'll have to fix up their financial system so they can finally float their currency with confidence. Only then should we consider China a true potential peer competitor. For the time being, though, it's becoming an integral part of the global supply chain.