I also believe that they are not going to raise the color to the next level, or even to plaid, unless they are absolutely, positively sure this time. (I don't have much faith in the old color system.) The last couple of times they raised the color threat level is was, as far as we could tell, a no-show. If they raise it again and to the publics eye it is another no-show it just looses that much more credibility.