Posted on 11/07/2003 11:55:09 AM PST by Tailgunner Joe
The crowd in a spacious square in Minsk on a crisp autumn day recently was subdued but hardly fearful. There were rousing speeches, but they didn't amount to a call to arms or an appeal for the overthrow of the government. The mood was more one of frustration as small-business owners vented their despair, a result of increasing taxes and the imposition of regulations they say are designed to drive them out of business.
"The government keeps thinking up new direct and indirect taxes for us, which are several dozen times higher than the net profit of most entrepreneurs. We are outraged by this," business leader Grigory Rylkov tells Insight. He says nearly one-third of the 59,000 small businesses that registered in Belarus at the beginning of 2003 since have gone bankrupt or closed because of the burdens of fines and taxes.
Among small-business owners in the Minsk crowd was plenty of confirmation of Rylkov's claims. Elena Ripinskaya, a private ballet teacher in the Belarusian capital, says she would have to close up her school. "The number of inspections and fines is rising all the time, and I am sick of feeling guilty for no reason."
Welcome to what foreign critics have dubbed the "Cuba of Europe."
Since the downfall of Serbian strongman Slobodan Milosevic, Belarusian President Aleksandr Lukashenko has become the latest pariah of Europe, condemned for pursuing an authoritarian style of rule and cultivating friendships with unsavory regimes, including Iraq's Saddam Hussein before he was toppled. Western governments have no doubt what they think should happen with the 47-year-old Soviet-style leader - he should go, and preferably soon.
With that aim in mind Rep. Christopher Smith (R-N.J.) has sponsored the Belarus Democracy Act of 2003 (HR 854), which would give the go-ahead to the Bush administration to spend tens of millions of dollars to support grass-roots democracy and civic groups in Belarus.
Lawmakers backing the legislation say U.S. support for the Serbian opposition was instrumental in ousting Milosevic and can be effective again in Belarus to rid Europe of its "last Communist dictatorship," a regime that hasn't hesitated to export weapons to countries considered in the West to be rogue states [see sidebar, p. 32]. International organizations too are raising a hue and cry about the trampling of human rights under Lukashenko. In September, European Jewish leaders accused Belarus' Education Ministry of pursuing anti-Semitic policies after officials shut down an institute offering a course in Jewish studies.
The closure of several independent newspapers last year also has been widely condemned and pressure is mounting outside Belarus, a landlocked country of 10 million dwarfed by its neighbor Russia, for Lukashenko to come clean about the disappearance and jailing of several political opponents.
But for all of the painting of Belarus as a country yearning for freedom, and of Lukashenko as the Castro of Europe, the reality isn't as simple. It remains unclear exactly how unpopular the president is outside the Western-tilted professional and business circles of Minsk. According to independent polls here, Lukashenko's popularity has increased over most of this year.
Among factory and farmworkers away from the Belarusian capital, as well as among pensioners, Lukashenko is seen as a leader who will protect them from the economic shock of hastily introduced capitalism. They look at increasing utility and consumer prices in neighboring Russia and the economic pain caused by the introduction of so-called "shock capitalism" there in the 1990s and they fear something similar happening to them. Lukashenko promised that Belarus wouldn't go through Russia's privatization experience when state-owned industries were plundered.
At the same time, Lukashenko is widely credited by Belarusians for having reined in mafia groups and organized crime, the bane of Russia and other former Soviet states. "That's one thing you can praise Lukashenko for - curbing corruption and seeing off the gangsters," says Belarusian businessman Valentin Ivanov.
Likewise, Lukashenko is credited for maintaining social stability. As far as dictatorships go, the Lukashenko regime is on a sliding scale of authoritarianism far less vicious than the governments of Central Asian states such as Uzbekistan, which have been embraced by the United States and the West in the name of the war on terrorism. Minsk isn't the drab, commerce-free city of the old Soviet days; at first glance there is little to distinguish it from the capitals of neighboring countries in Eastern Europe.
The young dress fashionably, chat away on cell phones, listen to European rock, enjoy vibrant nightclubs belting out Western and Russian rock rhythms and speak freely, including cracking jokes about their president. The capital's roads boast more Western cars, mainly of German origin, than cheaper, Russian-manufactured vehicles.
And despite the closure of more than a dozen independent newspapers during the last couple of years there still are well-produced opposition publications to buy. Belarusians have access to satellite television, including access to news channels such as the BBC, CNN and CNBC, although Fashion TV and MTV seem more popular.
While many Belarusians are frustrated with their president and believe his re-election was rigged, there is a widespread feeling here that there is little alternative to Lukashenko, a feeling that the strongman exploits to the hilt. The opposition leaders are unimpressive, admit European diplomats, although they point out that Lukashenko has bundled away the best. And their parties boast meager memberships - the biggest, a far-right party, only has 4,000 members, and the next biggest, the centrist Social Democrats, is believed to have a thousand less.
"You have to understand," says a senior Russian official, "that the political-cultural level of Belarus is very low and undeveloped. It was always a Russian backwater. I keep on saying to EU [European Union] officials, 'Okay, things could be better and there are definitely things to worry about like human rights, but who do you propose should replace Lukashenko?' The fact is that many of the most talented Belarusians chose Russian citizenship and went off to Moscow to work when Belarus became independent."
Lukashenko came to power by winning a landslide election victory in 1994. A former collective-farm manager seen as a man of the people, he unexpectedly beat a pillar of the former Communist establishment. He still tells ordinary Belarusians what most appear to want to hear: The country will pursue economic reform cautiously, law and order will be maintained and Belarus will continue to nudge closer to Russia. Pensions and salaries may be meager but, under Lukashenko, they are paid on time - an accomplishment that eluded Boris Yeltsin's government in Russia in the 1990s.
Within two years of securing the presidency, Lukashenko turned tougher and exploited a referendum on constitutional changes to dismiss a rebellious parliament. A new legislature was handpicked, and elections for a successor held in 2000 were condemned by foreign observers as fraudulent. Lukashenko reined in the judiciary. The security forces began to be used increasingly to crush dissent and to harass former ministers who dared criticize the president. "Belarus is like Serbia before the fall of Lukashenko's friend, Milosevic," says a German diplomat.
The comparison doesn't seem to worry the Belarusian leader. On television recently he announced that "there will be no Kostunica here," a reference to Vojislav Kostunica, the Serb politician who replaced Milosevic. "No way! This must be clear to you and all those who count on it," he added forcefully. And Lukashenko's confidence appears to be well-placed; without a much larger groundswell of opposition and dissent he is safe for the time being. "Most students just don't seem interested by politics," complains a graduate student at Belarus State University. "There is a general apathy here," he adds. "They just want to concentrate on their studies and hope to get a job."
But economic problems may change all of that. While fearful of rapid economic change, Belarusians are eager for some improvement and an increase in the average monthly wage of $105, something the government promised earlier this year. And there are signs of mounting frustration among the young and university graduates at the lack of opportunity in a nation where unemployment has risen by 26 percent in the last few months.
There also is increasing irritation among a burgeoning middle class at the paucity of well-stocked stores, and many of the young purchase their clothes in neighboring Poland or Russia. But new visa regulations imposed by the Poles in line with EU requirements will make it more expensive for Belarusians to travel to Warsaw and for small traders to import goods from Poland.
And even the Belarusian strongman can't keep economic change at bay forever. He faces a major challenge in the coming year as a result of Moscow's political decision to stop supplying natural gas to Belarus at a discount price and, although Belarus will double transit fees for Russian gas being piped into Eastern Europe, ordinary Belarusians will suffer a price hike. The government's budget will be put out of kilter, too.
Economists here say the ending of a discount price for Russian gas will make a growing budget deficit unavoidable. They warn that energy-price hikes will decrease the competitiveness of Belarusian goods, adding further pressure on the country's struggling economy. According to economists here there are only 10 profitable major businesses in the whole of Belarus, although the government denies that.
Some analysts are predicting a trade deficit in the coming year of $1 billion - a shortfall that probably will have Lukashenko running cap in hand to Moscow seeking further stabilization loans. But he will find Russian President Vladimir Putin less than forthcoming. Putin has been trying to parlay aid from Russia - Moscow has donated more than $200 million in recent years - into some economic reform in Belarus. He wants Lukashenko also to back off on demands for a hefty one-time payment in return for introducing the Russian ruble as the official currency.
According to Russian government sources, Putin is becoming increasingly exasperated with Lukashenko and the two have clashed fiercely over a proposed union between the two countries. Moscow fears that the Belarus leader will overplay his authoritarian hand.
"For the Russians it is important that Belarus remains in the Russian orbit and doesn't tilt toward the West," says a European diplomat. "The fear in Moscow is that by turning his back on economic reform Lukashenko will prompt at some point or other a major political crisis in Belarus, leading to his eventual replacement by a figure less friendly to Moscow."
Income rise x2 speed of price index and only reason Belaruss not bankrupt is Russia cover their gas/oil bill.
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