Amir Taheri: Thanks to EU, Iran is clawing its way into the nuclear club
Gulf News | 06-11-2003
Remember you first read it here. Iran is now on course to force its way into the nuclear club within the next two to three years. When it does, it will owe part of its success to a European Union diplomatic manoeuvre that has spared Iran the prospect of direct confrontation over its illicit nuclear programme, with the international community.
The manoeuvre, which led to the signature of a memorandum between the Islamic Republic and three European Union members in October, appears to have defused the latest crisis. As things stand it is almost certain that the International Atomic Energy Agency, IAEA, will soft pedal the procedure that could have led to a confrontation between Tehran and the United Nations over Iran's alleged pursuit of nuclear weapons.
The European Union initiative has exacted no more than a vague promise from the leadership in Tehran to temporarily halt a secret project to enrich uranium and produce plutonium.
Domestic politics
The temporary halt, if it does materialise, may be partly linked to Iranian domestic politics than a sudden desire on the part of the Khomeinist regime to honour the terms of the Nuclear Non-proliferation Treaty, NPT.
Iran is already in a campaign mode in anticipation of the general election next March. A foreign policy crisis at this time could upset the plans of the establishment that appears determined to purge the so-called reformist faction and impose a "Chinese-style" system of political repression and economic opening.
The establishment feared that the nuclear issue might force the EU to line up behind the tougher Iran policy preached by certain elements in the Bush administration. Playing the European card against Washington is an old and tested tactic of the Khomeinist regime.
Tehran used it in the 1980s by seizing and then liberating European hostages in exchange for pledges by the European powers not to join US-imposed sanctions against Iran. In the 1990s Tehran used the same tactic by tempting European oil companies with mouth-watering oil and gas contracts.
One other factor may have contributed to Tehran's decision to play the European card again. The choice of Mrs. Shirin Ebadi, an Iranian human rights lawyer as this year's Nobel Peace laureate, is seen in Tehran as a signal that Europe's "soft powers" may have signalled their readiness to help provide a "soft" face for the opposition against the Khomeinist regime.
Such an opposition could make it easier for the European powers to win the support of their own public opinion for a policy of regime change in Tehran. Thus the piece of paper that Tehran has just signed with three European foreign ministers is unlikely to affect the Khomeinist regime's strategy of building a capacity to produce an arsenal of nuclear weapons within the next two to three years.
There is little doubt that the Europeans know this. (They cannot be as naive as not to know after a quarter of a century of dealing with an unusually duplicitous regime.) So why did the three European wise men, travelling west to east, agree to take part in a manoeuvre to get the Khomeinist regime off the hook? Each of the three had his reason.
France's Foreign Minister Dominique de Villepin is desperately looking for any opportunity to show that Paris still has a say in the Middle East's complex politics. He would love to be able to claim that his "soft power" diplomacy did in Iran what the American "hard power" tried to do against Saddam Hussain in Iraq and, according to de Villepin, failed.
German Foreign Minister Joshcka Fischer, the second member of the wise trio, had a slightly different motive. Wile continuing his country's close alliance with France, Fischer is also anxious to avoid a situation in which Berlin finds itself alone with Paris.
The presence of the British Foreign Secretary Jack Straw in the trio helps Fischer avoid such a situation. At the same time Fischer would be able to tell the German public that the Schroeder government is still capable of playing a role in diffusing regional crises.
Change of occupant
Fischer and de Villepin also harbour the hope of seeing a change of occupant at the White House in 2005. Straw's motives are equally complicated. In his heart of hearts he knows that the only language that the Khomienists understand and respect is that of force.
But he also knows that Tony Blair's government is passing through its worst crisis since it first came to power in 1997. At a moment of crisis over Iran, Blair might find himself facing a choice he wishes to avoid: parting ways with the Americans or risking a political revolt within his Cabinet.
All this means is that the Khomeinist regime may well get yet another chance to have its cake and eat it. As already indicated by Hassan Ruhani, a mullah who speaks for the High Council of National security in Tehran, Iran's determination to dot itself with "the entire range of nuclear science and technology at all levels".
Iran's nuclear programme started in 1956. The strategic decision to develop nuclear weapons was taken in 1989. The regime has spent an estimated $12 billion on all aspects of this ambitious programme so far. It is not something that Tehran will give up after a session of tea and sympathy with the EU trio.
Amir Taheri, Iranian author and journalist, is based in Europe and can be contacted at his e-mail at
amirtaheri@benadorassociates.com. http://www.gulf-news.com/Articles/Opinion.asp?ArticleID=102165