Hard to tell. Townsend thus far has been a very weak candidate, Ehrlich (and campaign) has been very strong. There are Ehrlich/Steele signs and bumper stickers everywhere. There is some buzz that Townsend wanted to wait until she was the "official" nominee after the primary before really getting into campaign mode - let the mudslinging begin. They have to be counting on "core" MD Democrats to be in the bag, so that they will target specific areas with issue ads, and tarnish Ehrlich's stellar voting record in Congress.
If you want to get the Democratic "feel", you can look at the Baltimore Sun. Check this out:
Townsend, Ehrlich step up campaigning efforts
Excerpt:
"At the same time, her [Townsend's] criticisms of Ehrlich are sharpening. The lieutenant governor's latest mailing devotes two pages to Ehrlich's congressional votes and one page to her vision. "She was as good as I've ever seen her," Schaefer said, after listening to Townsend speak at Leisure World, a sprawling Montgomery County retirement community. Asked why she wanted to serve as governor during a time of shrinking revenues that will precipitate painful cuts, Townsend said the alternative - Ehrlich as governor - was an unacceptable option. "Better me, who cares about these values, than someone who voted for a $270 billion cut in Medicare," she said."
They'll try to win it with scare tactics, targeted issue speeches (like this one) and TV ads, and figuring that core Democratic groups will come through for them. So the wild card is probably going to be how much African-American support the presence of Steele on the GOP ticket will draw black voters.
There are a lot of parallels with what happened in Virgina. Townsend has thus far been a weak candidate carrying Glendening baggage, similar to Earley and Gilmore. But Earley was also always behind in the money game (way behind), and Townsend isn't. I'll make one solid prediction right now: as long as Townsend can maintain what appears to be a 5+ point advantage in the polls, she won't debate Ehrlich in person. She'll only do it if it gets close.