I think the Deep State control is greater than we thing and they will do all they can to upset populism. My take is as follows.
1. Dems—Biden and Harris Off the Ticket. Replaced by Newsom and Warren (or Booker)
2. GOP (RINOS) DeSantis and Haley approved and set to lose after a shut out of Trump in a disgraceful Convention. Rigged.
3. REFORM Party goes with Trump/Lake Third Party to screw over the Vichy Republicrats. Trump wins but is cheated once again in a “Narrow” Victory —It goes to the House and Dems win big.
4. Trump is made President of the CSA after secession, with VP John Kennedy in new Capital of Montgomery. Trump urges a peaceful National divorce. New States form. All urge peace but it quickly slips into Civil War.
Sad to think or say, but I do not think you are far off here.